Tuesday, October 29, 2013

NBA Award Predictions

The NBA season is now just hours away. Those of you who know me probably understand my excitement level right now. And if you’ve read my past articles, you can probably pick up that I find pleasure in making predictions and ranking the greatest talent the world has to offer in my sport. So once again, I’m back at it, making predictions on the six major NBA awards. Here they are:


Rookie of the Year:

victorMy pick: Victor Oladipo — Victor Oladipo has to be the favorite to win the ROY award. Though a decent shooter, outside shooting should be Oladipo’s primary area of concern heading into the season. He has to shape up his shot and gain comfortability with the deeper three point line that is 23 feet and 9 inches from the rim. If his shooting touch improves, he has all-star potential. The 21-year old has Tony Allen-like abilities on defense, yet has a more polished offensive game than T.A. does. While he may not be the type of guy to go out and get buckets on a nightly basis, he will certainly at least make a name for himself as a defensive stopper. He brings to the table what guys like Avery Bradley of the Celtics brings and what former NBA journeyman James Posey once brought. He’s a bulldog with a lock-down mentality. Oladipo will be a difference maker on defense, and a playmaker on offense.  I can’t wait for his first matchup with Dwyane Wade, the very man he was compared to throughout his collegiate career at Indiana University.


Coach of the Year:

greg popMy pick: Gregg Popovich — Gregg Popovich has won four championships and two Coach of the Year awards. He has an excellent chance to up those numbers two five and three when the 2013-2014 NBA season concludes. While Doc Rivers and Tom Thibodeau will be right on his heels, I favor coach Pop because of the current standing of both his team and the Western Conference as a whole. There are possibly more good teams in the West than ever before. So that means the aging Spurs should be counted out, right? Wrong. The fact of the matter is the West has twelve teams who will legitimately be vying for a playoff spot this year, but not one of them is dominant. It’s not like the East, where Miami clearly reigns atop the league. Nor is it like in years past, when Chris Webber’s Sacramento Kings or Shaq and Kobe’s Lakers were favored heavily. I picked the Thunder to finish the regular season with the best record but even OKC has problems of their own, such as a lack of any offensive threat from the post, the turnover plague, and no proven third scorer (a void James Harden left them with when he headed to Houston). San Antonio, moreover, is often the forgotten team, but they have essentially the same squad they had months ago, when they were just one possession away from being crowned world champions. I like them to make another postseason push, and as a result, I like Coach Pop, basketball’s best coach, to take home some more hardware.


Most Improved Player of the Year:

anthony davisMy Pick: Anthony Davis – I almost stuck with the Spurs theme and selected Kawhi Leonard to win Most Improved, but he ‘s already begun to make his mark on this league. Instead, I went with former Kentucky Wildcat Anthony Davis, who has potential oozing out of his pours on a daily basis. I’m not selecting AD because I believe in the power of the Pelican in it’s first year as mascot, but because the Pelicans have found Davis a little help this season. New Orleans is actually starting to look like a basketball team again, and though they won’t make the playoffs, they do have some formidable talent at the guard positions with Erica Gordon, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and youngster Austin Rivers. They have very little talent (other the Davis), however, at power forward and center. This is why he’s my pick. He’ll be playing heavy minutes and it’s his show to run down low. He’s already shown tremendous improvement throughout the preseason. Last season he poured in 13.5 points per game and grabbed 8.2 rebounds per contest, though his scoring total should skyrocket to 18 or 19 PPG this season. He has guards to run the pick-and-roll with, and that’s what he does best. I expect him to make a living catching lobs (after setting ball screens) much like Andre Drummond (another candidate to win Most Improved Player) of the Pistons will be doing this season. This uni-brow can play! He’s got length, athleticism, and most importantly, he’s extremely versatile. Look out for Anthony Davis to have a coming out party in 2014.


Defensive Player of the Year:

dwight howardMy pick: Dwight Howard — While the best defensive player in the league is actually Dwight’s teammate (Patrick Beverly), Howard has got to be the favorite to  earn back his Defensive Player of the Year honors. This, like the rest of Dwight’s future, depends on his health. While I am as hard on Dwight as anyone, I also give him props when his props are due. Though I was critical of his level of play last season,  his Lakers were 10th in the NBA on defense (in regards to points per possession) when he was on the court, and 29th when he wasn’t. Team Lakeshow surrendered 107.8 points per 100 possessions with D12 on the pine. Despite these numbers, he still didn’t even play to half his potential last season. Injuries had something to do with that. If he can avoid those injuries and gain his freak-like strength and athleticism back, then he should control the paint for a team that often gets beat (from the wing positions) by dribble drive penetration. Last season Dwight would pick up fouls in such situations as the back-line helper. This season, he’ll need to turn those fouls into blocks and rebounds if Houston is planning on being as good as they think they are. While I don’t think a deep playoff run is in store for the Rockets in 2014 (nor do I think they’ll ever win a championship until “Superman” improves his footwork, touch, and free throw shooting), I do think another Defensive Player of the Year Award is inevitable for Mr. Howard if he can find ways to stay off the bench.


Sixth Man of the Year

harrisonMy pick: Harrison Barnes — While the sexy pick to take home the 6th man award this season is Jamaal Crawford, I went with Harrison Barnes because I believe he’s in the perfect situation to make a name for himself as a high energy guy off the bench. Barnes won’t start over newly acquired Warrior Andre Iguodala.  I won’t call him “AI” because that nickname should be retired along with Allen Iverson’s greatness, but Iguodala and Barnes will sometimes play alongside one another. This means two strong, athletic, outstanding defenders will be on the court simultaneously. This will allow Barnes to demonstrate his versatility because he will be able to match-up against three, or sometimes even four, different positions. The main reason I like Barnes to win 6th Man of the Year, furthermore, is because of the way he finished last season. He made a believer out of me as well as Warrior Nation. While averaging just single digits during the regular season (9.2 PPG), Barnes upped his average (when it mattered most) in the playoffs to 16 PPG. I believe if he can put up similar figures, perhaps 15 PPG in 2014, then he’s got a real opportunity to runaway with the 6th Man Award when the season nears its end.


Most Valuable Player

D roseMy pick: Derrick Rose — I believe D-Rose will come back looking more like Adrian Peterson and less like Robert Griffin III, who also went through rigorous rehab regimes in order to return to their sport following an ACL injury.  From what I’ve seen thus far in the NBA preseason, Rose looks like he’s playing like he did in 2011 when he won the MVP. While I don’t think a 1 or 2 seed is in store for the Bulls this regular season, Chicago is my pick to make it’s long awaited return to the NBA Finals this year. And clearly, much of that has to do with Rose’s return. When healthy, he’s better than Westbrook. He’s better than Parker. And even though CP3 is more of a “true” point guard, he’s better than Chris Paul. Rose is more valuable to his team than any one player is to their team, outside of maybe Kobe to the Lakers or Melo to the Knicks. When I first heard him say he was more explosive than before and had increased his vertical by five inches following his injury, I thought he was just trying to use some positivity to psych himself up for the season….then I saw him play. He wasn’t lying. Rose looks healthier than ever, and that’s a scary thing for opposing franchises. He admits he’s never taken such care of his body as he has in the past year, and maintains that what he’s learned through his rehab process will only make him better. I believe him. Now that Derrick Rose is paying attention to detail like never before, I expect nothing less than a dominant season. His team is elite defensively, but is no stranger to scoring droughts. Rose is the one guy Chicago has who can end those droughts. He has the ability to dominate offensively, and not just in transition. It’s only a matter of time before we see him do it. Not one ESPN analyst, however, picked him as an MVP candidate….Not that he needed another chip on his shoulder.

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