In trying to predict how the NBA's regular season will finish next season, I struggled to select a team that will lead the Eastern Conference in wins. Just kidding.
I think all basketball analysts alike agree that the Miami Heat will finish atop the East (in the regular season at least).
Who then, can compete with the Heat and dethrone them? I'm not interested in who can keep things tight with the Heat and provide a scare to the disloyal fans of South Beach. The Pacers have done that for two straight seasons. Who cares who can hang with the Heat? How about, who can beat the Heat?
But before I get to my playoff predictions, moreover, I first need to pinpoint which teams are playoff worthy. And while everyone and their moms know the eight, seven, and six seeds of the East have little to no chance of winning a playoff series (unless maybe it's my Pistons), it's still fun to predict who will finish where when 82 games have been played.
Starting from the top, Miami is the clear-cut favorite. Miami is Zeus, and Indiana Poseidon. Much like in the past few years, Indiana will be near the top, but not at the top. Perhaps they can change that this time around when the post-season commences. But first, why Indiana for the the second spot?
Well, it's simple. They have have pieces and they have chemistry. They play defense and they play team ball. And most importantly, they have experience playing with one another. David West re-signed because he believes this is the year Indiana gets over the hump. Luis Scola, who will now join West in the Pacer's front court, is an extremely valuable pick-up as well and substantially improves the team's depth. He is an upgrade from Psycho T, who left the team to go north of the border and join the dreadful yet always athletic Toronto Raptors. These two have the preferable type of skillset to play alongside a footer like Hibbert.
Indiana is not only set in the post, but they also have #24. No not Kobe. But if you followed the NBA last season you know what Paul George can do. And he is quickly becoming the team's go-to guy. He was widely regarded as the team's second best player when Danny Granger was healthy. While most probably agree with me in saying that George is now the better of the two, it sure won't hurt the team to have both (regardless of who you think is better, but it's clearly George) in the starting five now that Granger is returning from injury. This allows the team to match-up perfectly with the two-time defending champs. Granger and George form a better defensive threat to Lebron and Flash than any other duo in the league.
With this being said, a second place finish in the East makes sense for Indiana. But why not number one? Well the answer to that lies in the position I have not yet mentioned: point guard. The fact of the matter is the point guard position is the team's only weakness. This is not a knock on George Hill, who is a great pro and has had a successful career thus far. But quite frankly, I don't think George Hill will ever be a championship level point guard. He was a great back-up to Tony Parker in San Antonio, and he has been a formidable starter in Indy. However, I'll say it again: He is not a championship level point guard. It seems plausible that Hill could win a title as a very effective 6th man, but Indiana will only continue to get so close and then fall just short as long as he remains the team's starter. But in regards to the regular season, a Hill, George, Granger, West, Hibbert starting lineup ought to wrap up the two seed. If they don't, shame on them.
The 3 seed will surely fall to either New York, Brooklyn, or Chicago. I first must address the brewing inner-state rivalry that is sprouting between the Knicks and new-look Nets. People are beginning to question whether or not Brooklyn can take over the city of New York. I don't mean to de-magnify the situation, but there isn't much to take over. It's not as if the Knickerbockers, who have done nothing impressive as of late, have owned the city by any means. Even when Melo's squad was solo in the city, the fans complained often and never completely bought in. So I wouldn't say any team runs New York, but Brooklyn does have the advantage in the short-term future.
I like this modernized Coach Kidd-led team to claim the third spot in the East. It's difficult to turn a blind eye to the weapons the Nets now have. Bringing two future Hall-of-Famers and a jet to the roster has sparked life into what was becoming quite an average franchise. The team has weapons. Because of age they may no longer be weapons of mass destruction, but they are weapons nonetheless.
D-Will, Joe, the Truff, the Big Ticket, and Lopez looks like a top-five NBA starting lineup on paper. While I imagine it will take them some time to develop the necessary chemistry on and off the court to become great, the second half of the season ought to be their time. While I can't wait to see what KG's insertion into the lineup does to the team's defense, the one who needs to step up most on offense is not the aging vets from Boston, but the point guard who deems himself great.Deron Williams has been a very good player over the best few years. But very good is not good enough. He has fallen short of his superstar expectations and is no longer in the conversation for the league's top PG. He needs to stop being very good, and start being great. D-Will needs to establish himself as the team's leader and best player right off the bat. Having former point Jason Kidd in his ear every day of the week should help him in doing just that.
Pierce and Johnson's style of play will compliment D-Will's very well, and KG's jump shooting, one would think, should mesh perfectly with Lopez's post presence. If for some reason the starting five struggles with the championship-or-bust type pressure that will dawn on them, they've got excellent peer support on the pine.
I have quickly fallen in love with the depth of Brooklyn's re-shaped front line. Backing up Garnett and Lopez is instant offense in Andre Blatche, and instant defense in Reggie Evans. Rookie Mason Plumlee (who will be a very effective pro) will also provide energy and a presence in the post. They have the pieces to battle with any and all teams down low. While the front line is a bit thinner, they have instant energy in former Sixth Man of the Year, Jason Terry.
I believe we will see the Jet from Dallas, and not the underachieving one from Boston. While he will not score as much as he did while playing next to his current coach J-Kidd and Dirk, he will be the energizer bunny for the club as well as the team's best floor spacer. I'm assuming Terry regrets tattooing the Boston Celtic mascot holding the Larry O'Brien trophy on his left bicep. Terry does, however, have an excellent chance of holding that championship hardware once more if Brooklyn can match all the pieces to their talented puzzle. For this reason, I see them beating out the Bulls and Knicks for 3rd in the East.
Chicago will be the last team to obtain home court advantage in round one. While a few additions and subtractions were made to the team's roster, Coach Tibbs has his core group of guys back. Chicago ranks in the top five for best chemistry in the NBA, and that is a direct result of the core group playing as a unit. Noah, Deng, Boozer, and company return and will help lead one of the the league's premier defenses. The Bulls adhere to a system, and play passionately on defense (they can put the clamps down), which keeps them in games when their offense struggles. And it's inevitable that their offense will occasionally struggle. That, moreover, is why the Windy City fans should embrace and celebrate "The Return."
That's right; Derek Rose is back folks! Much like I will understand if it takes the Nets a while to learn how to play with one another, it might also take D Rose some time before he's back to elite status. It might take time for the rust to be shaken off, which is why I have given Rose's team nothing better than a four seed. But if he's mentally and physically 100% by playoff time, that's when he'll be on an equal playing field with the likes of Miami. While Nate Robinson's departure to Denver will be a significant loss, I still anticipate the core of the team will lock up on defense while Rose anchors the offense when needed. The net result, come playoff time, could mean a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.Chicago's style of play is quite dissimilar from that of New York's. The Knicks have a roster that looks extremely similar to the one they've had in the past two seasons, each of which have been failures if the playoffs mean anything. New York likes to outscore people. They still have guys who like to compete to see who can take the most bad shots in a game. The team still has the worst backup point guard in the NBA (Pablo Prigioni) who is relieving an out-of-shape starting point (Raymond Felton). Even more concerning, the team only has one legitimate defensive-minded player in Tyson Chandler (Metta WorldPeace tries to be, but he can't play on either end of the court these days).
Clearly this means some people will have to step up. Amar'e Stoudemire, whose name has nearly been completely zapped from the media, will be the x-factor. Andrea Bargnani will not be. Bargnani loves to get buckets which is why he's a Knick. But unfortunately, he seems to like giving up buckets more than he does getting them, which also fits a team that often plays on only one side of the floor. Bargnani and Stoudemire are two amongst a handful who need to step up and make significant strides defensively. I posted an article about Stoudemire last year in which I deemed him a disappearing act. I stand by every word I wrote in that post. Injury-plagued Amar'e has been non-existent in the past few years, and has let the city of New York down. If the Knicks are to do anything this year, he will need to be a big part of the success.
Despite my criticism of Coach Mike Woodson's team, it's not all negative in NYC. They still have one very dynamic thing going for them, and that thing is 6'8 and 230 pounds of skill. Yes, Carmelo Anthony is still a Knick, and though he's not yet won a ring, he cannot be ignored. Melo is a top-fve player in the game today, and is fully capable of carrying his team through the regular season. Melo's greatest challenge will not be to score more, but to make others around him better in 2014. No, I'm not saying Melo needs to develop a point guard mentality (he can still do his thing on offense), but he does need to rally his troops and be a leader from the forward position. He can only carry his team for so long. The Knicks will trail the Bulls in wins next season by a very slim margin (these two teams will face off in the first round of the playoffs), and consequently, find themselves with a five seed.
Selecting the final three seeds is where the fun begins. While others might disagree with the order in which I have placed Miami, Indiana, Brooklyn, Chicago, and New York, I don't know a single basketball analyst who would refute the notion that I have already given the five best teams (in the East) a seed. The remaining three teams are those that have little to no chance of winning a playoff series (unless maybe it's my Pistons), but will be ecstatic just to make the post-season. These teams will be as happy to find life after 82 games as my childhood friends were to win the Toilet Bowl at the Greenville Gus Macker in elementary school.
The first of my final three playoff teams is my home-state squad, the Pistons. This is not a byproduct of me dwelling in the overzealous praise given to Dumars by Detroit fans because the team finally has a couple of well-known players on the team. While I'm happy with the moves Dumars has made post-draft, I realize the team will still be very flawed on defense. I like what Detroit did in picking up Brandon Jennings, Josh Smith, and former World Champion with the Pistons, Chauncey Billups (who, aside from assistant coach Rasheed Wallace, is clearly the fan favorite already). The reality is, however, that neither Jennings nor Smith play a lick of defense, and Chauncey (who is still a very good player) is inching closer to retirement as you read this.
New coach Mo Cheeks has a difficult task ahead of him, but he does have more tools to work with than he previously thought he would when he took the job. There is talent on the roster now, and while the new guys struggle on D, they will be able to put up points. We know about the shiftiness of Jennings and the athleticism of Smith, but the leadership and outside shooting (which was desperately needed in Detroit) of Billups ought not be overshadowed.
It's not just the new guys, but the returning size down low that also has people excited. Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond are coming into the 2013-2014 season with one more year of experience under their belts. That year will make a world of a difference.
Drummond's athleticism is comparable to that of Smith's. If those two get in on the fastbreak lob action, Detroit could be fun to watch. While they run the floor, Monroe will be assigned to the paint, where he and Tony Mitchell (who might be the steal of the draft) will be formidable bigs. If Cheeks can find a way to utilize the individual talents of his new-look team (they even have new jerseys) and make them play as one, Detroit might even flirt with a run to the second round of the playoffs.
A Hibbert-Bynum matchup in the first round of the playoffs also sounds intriguing. That matchup might very well take place (given both are healthy), as Cleveland is my likely candidate for the seventh seed. The success of the Cavs leans largely on Bynum's state of consciousness this season. If he is physically and mentality bought in to Cleveland basketball, then Eastern Conference big men should be forewarned. When healthy, he is arguably the best center in the NBA. When you team him with Kryie Irving, an incredibly dangerous duo is created. Kryie is the future of the league, and might be the best PG basketball has to offer in three to five years. Kyrie will spend some time at the shooting guard position as a direct result of Dan Gilbert acquiring Jarret Jack from Golden State. Jack and fellow newcomers Earl Clark and first overall selection of the draft Anthony Bennett look to compliment Bynum and Irving with their new roles, which are still being shaped today. These Lebronless Cavs have two of the most talented payers in the league, and a number of potentially effective role players. As a result, they should find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since their King abandoned them.
The last team to sneak into the playoffs will be the Boston Celtics. Yes, I know the Celtics are supposed to be in rebuilding mode. But if they are planning their lottery picks already, they'll have to wait another year. Boston did little to earn my eighth seed, but was granted it via process of elimination.
The Raptors might enjoy their time on SportsCenter's Top Ten, but their above the rim play is not enough for a playoff bid. I've also began mourning for the 76ers following a quick glance at their roster. Philadelphia might be the bottomless pit of the NBA next season. And the Bobcats surely won't make the playoffs either. The Wizards still have no idea how to play as a team, and the Hawks lost too much talent. Victor Oladipo is the only positive thing about Orlando. And O.J. Mayo is the only true offensive weapon in Milwaukee, and he should be a team's third or fourth option, not first. This leaves one team: The Boston Celtics.
Should NBA fans be surprised that the league's most successful franchise might make the playoffs? I certainly understand that losing Pierce, Garnett, and Doc took the life out of Boston. But now they have a young nucleus and a young coach who are beginning the process of re-energizing Beantown to the best of their ability. Boston still has Rondo, one of the game's best. He will be accompanied by returners Jeff Greene, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley (who is the basketball's best defender of point and shooting guards), and Courtney Lee. Kelly Olynyk out of Gonzaga is also a bright spot for the team's future. If Boston drafts as well as they did this past June, then their road to recovery might be quicker than expected. Olynyk will quickly become one of Rondo's favorite targets. If the 7'0 rookie can discover his role among the returners, and Rondo returns to prime form, Boston should make a run at the East's final playoff spot.
Thus, my predicted Eastern Conference playoff seedings look like this:1. Miami Heat
2. Indiana Pacers
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Chicago Bulls
5. New York Knicks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
8. Boston Celtics
