Western Conference Predictions

The dynamics of the NBA’s Western Conference seem to reshape themselves year by year. Unlike in the East, where Miami is the clear-cut favorite, the parody of today’s Western Conference is undeniable.
It’s that same parody that creates a sense of exhilaration for basketball fans come playoff time. Throughout the past two decades, the West has traditionally been a better conference from top to bottom, as evident by the 8 vs 1 seed upsets in 2007 (when the Baron Davis-led warriors defeated Dirk’s Mavs) and 2009 (when the Grizz topped Coach Pop’s always tough San Antonio squad).

With the current depth of talented teams out west, 2014 could very well be host to some more thrilling upsets. I guess that’s why TNT asserts that the NBA knows drama. If drama is to come in the form of another top seeded team being upended, then let this be a warning to KD and crew, because the Thunder will be seeded on top come playoff time.

Kevin Durant said he’s been sick and tired of coming in second his whole life. He was drafted second to Greg Oden, finished second in MVP voting to LBJ, and finished second in the 2012 finals. While I’m sure he would have been picked up first, not second, in any open gym I’ve ever played in, he certainly has higher standards than that. We all know KD can’t stand to sit back and watch LeBron James win a second championship, while he sits at home with zilch. It gets to him, as it should. As a result, Durant is hungrier than ever.

         

What will happen to the Thunder if they lose again? They are supposed to be built for championships. Might Durant and Westbrook be forced to separate if they fail to win again? These are questions neither OKC star wants to consider, which means their time must be now. They need to get W’s, and I have reason to believe they will be getting lots of them this season.

The Thunder are only two seasons removed from a trip to the NBA Finals, and thought they don’t have Harden anymore, I believe they would have been right back there last season had Russ not been the latest victim of a tragic yet ever-so-popular knee injury. With their point guard healthy, they earned the West’s top spot last year as the regular season concluded (despite no longer having Blackbeard, who moved on to Houston).  Their current roster looks nearly the same as last season’s. The biggest difference is that their opponents will now be facing a fed-up, impatient Durant, who’s getting sick of waiting for his first ring. The net result will be a #1 seed.

My second seed goes to the franchise that’s been completely flipped upside down from where it was a decade ago, the Los Angeles Clippers. I’ve never heard of trading for a coach, but LobCity made it happen, and they won’t regret it. Doc Rivers will prove just how much difference a head coach can make in this league. He has to be the second best coach (trailing only Popovich), and is now rejuvenated on the west coast after coaching an aging Celtics team that was nearing it’s window on the east coast. What enticed him to make the change is that he’s now got a roster to work with that is both youthful and skillful.

Chris Paul, the best leader and point guard in the league, has some new faces to work with. While the root of LobCity (Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin) returns, the team also added some much needed shooting to create room for those pick-and-rolls which so often lead to the above-the-rim action Clipper fans are growing accustomed to seeing. J.J. Redick will create room for CP3 to do his thing, and Dudley, a glue guy, will make shots and do all the little things to help his team improve on last year’s record-breaking season.

I think the pieces of the puzzle fit together nicely for L.A.C. to win a lot of games this upcoming season. To get the #2 seed in a tough Western Conference would be quite a feat for this new-look team, though I think they can accomplish that feat. I’m not sold, however, on their chances to go anywhere past the conference semifinals come playoff time.

While I think their roster was put together nicely for the stretch of an 82-game season, I don’t like the lack of defenders they have at the 2 and 3 positions, which I think will hurt them in a 7-game series against opposing teams’ superstars. Dudley and Redick will fit in great offensively with what the team is trying to accomplish, but can they really win a championship with those two guys owning starting spots? I don’t think so. Not to mention, Jamaal Crawford is the only guy other than CP3 who can create his own shot, and that is concerning for Clipper title hopes. I will admit, though, that Doc usually tends to find a way. I believe he’ll make it work through 82 games, but come post-season, I just think their weaknesses will be exposed on the bigger stage. Nevertheless, the Clippers get my #2 seed.

The Golden State Warriors, much like superstar Kevin Durant, have a chip on their shoulders. Such a mentality starts with the head coach, Mark Jackson, who is has already proved himself to be a confident, passionate new coach in this league. Though he failed to meet his promise to make the playoffs with the Warriors in year one, he put confidence back into a desperate franchise and delivered in year two, as the Warriors claimed the 6th seed in 2013.  Now that they’ve tasted success and improved their roster from what was an already talented club, they should only improve (hence me granting them my #3 seed).

Curry, the best shooter in the NBA, has made himself into more of an all-around player and a top-15 talent in this league. He and Klay Thompson together are deadly from beyond the arc. Harrison Barnes is also a threat on both ends of the court, and Bogut, Lee, Green, and Ezeli provide toughness as well as formidable depth down low. New addition Andre Iguodala will be a great fit for Golden State’s system as well. He and Barnes will each be able to guard the other team’s best player, which could make the Warriors extremely versatile on the defensive end of the floor (which is something they’ve lacked in the past). It’s not the individual pieces that make Golden State so dangerous, however, but the play of the unit as a collective group. The Warriors are a team full of good players who do not care who gets the credit. They play team ball, and they do so at a very high level.

          

Another team that knows nothing other than team basketball is the San Antonio Spurs, who will capture the #4 seed when the regular season comes to a close. The Spurs, though, have a style quite contrasting from that of the Warriors. Golden State is young, energetic, and in a sense, something new for basketball fans. The Spurs, on the other hand, have been there and done that. They’re the definition of consistency over time as they’ve done it for so long. They’re old. They’re fundamental. They’re blue collar. The Spurs do it without flash.

So why did I drop a team that was one free throw away from winning the World Championship to a 4 seed? Well, it’s not because I don’t believe in them. In fact, I do. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs are back in the Finals next season, because they know what it takes. Their experience is second to none. The only difference I see in next season’s team as opposed to last season’s team is that they are one year older. This means achy knees, sore shoulders, and back spasms for vets like Ginobili and Duncan. Consequently, Coach Pop, who is known for resting his players during the regular season, will do so again more than ever during the course of this upcoming NBA season. I expect to see the big three on the bench more than in years past. As a result, I give them my #4 seed. Despite barely giving them home-court advantage in the first round, I give them a better chance to make the Finals than my 2-seeded Clippers. But hey, I’m just picking the seeds right now, not playoff results.

Come round 1 of playoff time the Spurs of old will be matched up with the Rockets of new. Despite the hype surrounding D12 teaming with Harden and a handful of shooters, Houston will finish no better than fifth out west. Sure, you get the positives as to why I think they will improve on their 8th seed from last season. They have both Dwight and Asik down low (that’s great for defensive purposes). Dwight will be playing with a roster similar to the one he had in Orlando that he took to the finals. Hakeem the Dream, Yao, and Kevin McHale will all be able to influence the big fella. And last but not least, Dwight doesn’t even have to be the best player on his team. All such things are positive for Houston. But one thing excited Houston fans can’t deny is that with the exception of Patrick Beverly, a backup, none of the guards on the team play defense. Trying to out-shoot and out-score people only works for so long. The team brought in Ronnie Brewer, but he’s an overrated defender who shouldn’t be on the court long because his defense is not good enough to make up for his lack of offensive production. So perhaps D12 can cure this problem by clogging the lane. But if it’s the same D12 of the past two years, that surely won’t work. He’ll be in foul trouble before Rocket fans can say “HELP.” The Rockets get my #5 seed because of offensive prowess, not defensive potency.

My #6 seed goes to the identity-less Lakers. We’ve seen how poor this team can play. Despite that poor play, and having probably the most injury-plagued basketball team in NBA history, the Lakeshow still made the playoffs last season. One cannot overlook what the Lakers did at the end of the regular season before Kobe went down with his achilles tear. In case you forgot, they were rolling. And they got better this off-season. The first step to improvement was addition by subtraction: ridding themselves of the Dwight Howard drama. Had Phil been the new coach of L.A.L. (as he should have been), then the team would be better off with Dwight and the triangle offense. But since he’s not, D12 has no place in D’Antoni’s system. I think with him out of the lineup, guys will not be worried about filling his soft ego with touches, but instead will be focused on their own games and playing their roles more effectively.

Call me a crazy Lakers fan, but I expect to see a lively Pau Gasol (who will be getting many more touches) this season and a much improved Steve Nash. And there is also no question in my mind that Kobe will be Kobe. He’s the most determined basketball player of all-time. If he wants to be back in elite form, he will be. So, the Black Mamba is not a concern of mine. Instead, I’m fascinated by what this Lakers team might or might not do. They’ve yet to show us what kind of team they are, but I believe these old guys can get it done. They did manage to insert some youth into their aching roster. Nick Young was by far Mitch Kupchak’s best pickup of the off-season. At age 28, Young has everything the Lakers needed: athleticism, a three point shot, the ability to create for self, and Laker pride (he’s an L.A. native). Ryan Kelly, Jordan Hill, Jody Meeks, Wesley Johnson, and Elias Harris will also be able to provide a youthful sense of energy and keep their elders (Pau, Kobe, Nash) updated with the newest technology of the modern era. With that being said, the Lakers could be on the bubble this year. And even if Pau and Nash don’t succeed like I think they will, the last time I checked, they still had Kobe Bryant. He’ll be back in rare form in no time.

While I’ve mentioned that certain teams clicked well as a unit, if one and one team only embodies the word togetherness, it has to be the Denver Nuggets. This team, which reminds me of the 2004 World Champion Detroit Pistons, is constructed as just that: a team. Denver has no superstar, but a great number of very good players. Their relentless style of play makes them tough to play on any given night because they never take games off, let alone plays off. Despite losing Iguodala to the Warriors, I didn’t drop them from a 3 seed to a 7 seed because I think they’ve gotten a lot worse. I think they will be as tough as ever; I just think other teams have gotten much better.

Denver will be capable of beating anyone and everyone. They’ll surprise a number of teams in a number of games. Nate Robinson, Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried, and J.J. Hickson just reek of energy (on both ends of the court). They’ll remain one of the most energetic, exciting teams to watch. Yet, I believe their one weakness will be offensive consistency. While playing in a conference that is much improved, their sometimes inconsistent efficiency on O will give them issues at times, especially under first-year head coach Brian Shaw. As a result, I see them finishing with the #7 seed and eventually entertaining the Clippers for 7 games in round one come playoff time.

            

My final seed goes to the Memphis Grizzlies. I love the way the Grizz play the game. They too, have no superstars. They have one of the best starting front lines with Marc Gasol and Zack Randolph, but neither guy is a superstar, and I’m concerned with their depth following Darrell Arthur’s departure. They’ll be good defensively, but still need to add another big for support. Mike Miller was the only addition to a team that badly needed one more scorer on offense (and didn’t get that scorer). Regardless of player personnel, the worst decision of the off-season came when a coaching change was made.

There was no logical reason for firing Lionel Hollins and replacing him with rookie head coach David Joerger (formerly of Moorhead State University). It makes no sense to me, nor did it to the Grizzlies players. The core foundation the team already has with Conley, Allen, Prince, and the big guys down low is enough to grant them a playoff birth. But starting over with a new head coach (one who still has to earn the respect of his players) was not a good move and might have ruined Memphis’s hopes of making a deep playoff run. The Grizz round out the Western Conference Playoffs with my #8 seed.

After 82 games of regular season play, your Western Conference seedings will look something like this:

1. Oklahoma City

2. Los Angeles Clippers

3. Golden State Warriors

4. San Antonio Spurs

5. Houston Rockets

6. Los Angeles Lakers

7. Denver Nuggets

8. Memphis Grizzlies

Eastern Conference Predictions

In trying to predict how the NBA's regular season will finish next season, I struggled to select a team that will lead the Eastern Conference in wins.

Just kidding.

I think all basketball analysts alike agree that the Miami Heat will finish atop the East (in the regular season at least).

Who then, can compete with the Heat and dethrone them? I'm not interested in who can keep things tight with the Heat and provide a scare to the disloyal fans of South Beach. The Pacers have done that for two straight seasons. Who cares who can hang with the Heat? How about, who can beat the Heat?

But before I get to my playoff predictions, moreover, I first need to pinpoint which teams are playoff worthy. And while everyone and their moms know the eight, seven, and six seeds of the East have little to no chance of winning a playoff series (unless maybe it's my Pistons), it's still fun to predict who will finish where when 82 games have been played.

Starting from the top, Miami is the clear-cut favorite. Miami is Zeus, and Indiana Poseidon. Much like in the past few years, Indiana will be near the top, but not at the top. Perhaps they can change that this time around when the post-season commences. But first, why Indiana for the the second spot?

Well, it's simple. They have have pieces and they have chemistry. They play defense and they play team ball. And most importantly, they have experience playing with one another. David West re-signed because he believes this is the year Indiana gets over the hump. Luis Scola, who will now join West in the Pacer's front court, is an extremely valuable pick-up as well and substantially improves the team's depth. He is an upgrade from Psycho T, who left the team to go north of the border and join the dreadful yet always athletic Toronto Raptors. These two have the preferable type of skillset to play alongside a footer like Hibbert.

Yeah, that's right. Indiana still has the beef down low. And it comes in the form of one of the games best and few remaining "true centers."


Indiana is not only set in the post, but they also have #24. No not Kobe. But if you followed the NBA last season you know what Paul George can do. And he is quickly becoming the team's go-to guy. He was widely regarded as the team's second best player when Danny Granger was healthy. While most probably agree with me in saying that George is now the better of the two, it sure won't hurt the team to have both (regardless of who you think is better, but it's clearly George) in the starting five now that Granger is returning from injury. This allows the team to match-up perfectly with the two-time defending champs. Granger and George form a better defensive threat to Lebron and Flash than any other duo in the league.

With this being said, a second place finish in the East makes sense for Indiana. But why not number one? Well the answer to that lies in the position I have not yet mentioned: point guard. The fact of the matter is the point guard position is the team's only weakness. This is not a knock on George Hill, who is a great pro and has had a successful career thus far. But quite frankly, I don't think George Hill will ever be a championship level point guard. He was a great back-up to Tony Parker in San Antonio, and he has been a formidable starter in Indy. However, I'll say it again: He is not a championship level point guard. It seems plausible that Hill could win a title as a very effective 6th man, but Indiana will only continue to get so close and then fall just short as long as he remains the team's starter. But in regards to the regular season, a Hill, George, Granger, West, Hibbert starting lineup ought to wrap up the two seed. If they don't, shame on them.

The 3 seed will surely fall to either New York, Brooklyn, or Chicago. I first must address the brewing inner-state rivalry that is sprouting between the Knicks and new-look Nets. People are beginning to question whether or not Brooklyn can take over the city of New York. I don't mean to de-magnify the situation, but there isn't much to take over. It's not as if the Knickerbockers, who have done nothing impressive as of late, have owned the city by any means. Even when Melo's squad was solo in the city, the fans complained often and never completely bought in. So I wouldn't say any team runs New York, but Brooklyn does have the advantage in the short-term future.

I like this modernized Coach Kidd-led team to claim the third spot in the East. It's difficult to turn a blind eye to the weapons the Nets now have. Bringing two future Hall-of-Famers and a jet to the roster has sparked life into what was becoming quite an average franchise. The team has weapons. Because of age they may no longer be weapons of mass destruction, but they are weapons nonetheless.

D-Will, Joe, the Truff, the Big Ticket, and Lopez looks like a top-five NBA starting lineup on paper. While I imagine it will take them some time to develop the necessary chemistry on and off the court to become great, the second half of the season ought to be their time. While I can't wait to see what KG's insertion into the lineup does to the team's defense, the one who needs to step up most on offense is not the aging vets from Boston, but the point guard who deems himself great.

Deron Williams has been a very good player over the best few years. But very good is not good enough. He has fallen short of his superstar expectations and is no longer in the conversation for the league's top PG. He needs to stop being very good, and start being great. D-Will needs to establish himself as the team's leader and best player right off the bat. Having former point Jason Kidd in his ear every day of the week should help him in doing just that.

Pierce and Johnson's style of play will compliment D-Will's very well, and KG's jump shooting, one would think, should mesh perfectly with Lopez's post presence. If for some reason the starting five struggles with the championship-or-bust type pressure that will dawn on them, they've got excellent peer support on the pine.

I have quickly fallen in love with the depth of Brooklyn's re-shaped front line. Backing up Garnett and Lopez is instant offense in Andre Blatche, and instant defense in Reggie Evans. Rookie Mason Plumlee (who will be a very effective pro) will also provide energy and a presence in the post. They have the pieces to battle with any and all teams down low. While the front line is a bit thinner, they have instant energy in former Sixth Man of the Year, Jason Terry.

I believe we will see the Jet from Dallas, and not the underachieving one from Boston. While he will not score as much as he did while playing next to his current coach J-Kidd and Dirk, he will be the energizer bunny for the club as well as the team's best floor spacer. I'm assuming Terry regrets tattooing the Boston Celtic mascot holding the Larry O'Brien trophy on his left bicep. Terry does, however, have an excellent chance of holding that championship hardware once more if Brooklyn can match all the pieces to their talented puzzle. For this reason, I see them beating out the Bulls and Knicks for 3rd in the East.

Chicago will be the last team to obtain home court advantage in round one. While a few additions and subtractions were made to the team's roster, Coach Tibbs has his core group of guys back. Chicago ranks in the top five for best chemistry in the NBA, and that is a direct result of the core group playing as a unit. Noah, Deng, Boozer, and company return and will help lead one of the the league's premier defenses. The Bulls adhere to a system, and play passionately on defense (they can put the clamps down), which keeps them in games when their offense struggles. And it's inevitable that their offense will occasionally struggle. That, moreover, is why the Windy City fans should embrace and celebrate "The Return."

That's right; Derek Rose is back folks! Much like I will understand if it takes the Nets a while to learn how to play with one another, it might also take D Rose some time before he's back to elite status. It might take time for the rust to be shaken off, which is why I have given Rose's team nothing better than a four seed. But if he's mentally and physically 100% by playoff time, that's when he'll be on an equal playing field with the likes of Miami. While Nate Robinson's departure to Denver will be a significant loss, I still anticipate the core of the team will lock up on defense while Rose anchors the offense when needed. The net result, come playoff time, could mean a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Chicago's style of play is quite dissimilar from that of New York's. The Knicks have a roster that looks extremely similar to the one they've had in the past two seasons, each of which have been failures if the playoffs mean anything. New York likes to outscore people. They still have guys who like to compete to see who can take the most bad shots in a game. The team still has the worst backup point guard in the NBA (Pablo Prigioni) who is relieving an out-of-shape starting point (Raymond Felton). Even more concerning, the team only has one legitimate defensive-minded player in Tyson Chandler (Metta WorldPeace tries to be, but he can't play on either end of the court these days).

Clearly this means some people will have to step up. Amar'e Stoudemire, whose name has nearly been completely zapped from the media, will be the x-factor. Andrea Bargnani will not be. Bargnani loves to get buckets which is why he's a Knick. But unfortunately, he seems to like giving up buckets more than he does getting them, which also fits a team that often plays on only one side of the floor. Bargnani and Stoudemire are two amongst a handful who need to step up and make significant strides defensively. I posted an article about Stoudemire last year in which I deemed him a disappearing act. I stand by every word I wrote in that post. Injury-plagued Amar'e has been non-existent in the past few years, and has let the city of New York down. If the Knicks are to do anything this year, he will need to be a big part of the success.

Despite my criticism of Coach Mike Woodson's team, it's not all negative in NYC. They still have one very dynamic thing going for them, and that thing is 6'8 and 230 pounds of skill. Yes, Carmelo Anthony is still a Knick, and though he's not yet won a ring, he cannot be ignored. Melo is a top-fve player in the game today, and is fully capable of carrying his team through the regular season. Melo's greatest challenge will not be to score more, but to make others around him better in 2014. No, I'm not saying Melo needs to develop a point guard mentality (he can still do his thing on offense), but he does need to rally his troops and be a leader from the forward position. He can only carry his team for so long. The Knicks will trail the Bulls in wins next season by a very slim margin (these two teams will face off in the first round of the playoffs), and consequently, find themselves with a five seed.

Selecting the final three seeds is where the fun begins. While others might disagree with the order in which I have placed Miami, Indiana, Brooklyn, Chicago, and New York, I don't know a single basketball analyst who would refute the notion that I have already given the five best teams (in the East) a seed. The remaining three teams are those that have little to no chance of winning a playoff series (unless maybe it's my Pistons), but will be ecstatic just to make the post-season. These teams will be as happy to find life after 82 games as my childhood friends were to win the Toilet Bowl at the Greenville Gus Macker in elementary school.

The first of my final three playoff teams is my home-state squad, the Pistons. This is not a byproduct of me dwelling in the overzealous praise given to Dumars by Detroit fans because the team finally has a couple of well-known players on the team. While I'm happy with the moves Dumars has made post-draft, I realize the team will still be very flawed on defense. I like what Detroit did in picking up Brandon Jennings, Josh Smith, and former World Champion with the Pistons, Chauncey Billups (who, aside from assistant coach Rasheed Wallace, is clearly the fan favorite already). The reality is, however, that neither Jennings nor Smith play a lick of defense, and Chauncey (who is still a very good player) is inching closer to retirement as you read this.

New coach Mo Cheeks has a difficult task ahead of him, but he does have more tools to work with than he previously thought he would when he took the job. There is talent on the roster now, and while the new guys struggle on D, they will be able to put up points. We know about the shiftiness of Jennings and the athleticism of Smith, but the leadership and outside shooting (which was desperately needed in Detroit) of Billups ought not be overshadowed.

It's not just the new guys, but the returning size down low that also has people excited. Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond are coming into the 2013-2014 season with one more year of experience under their belts. That year will make a world of a difference.

Drummond's athleticism is comparable to that of Smith's. If those two get in on the fastbreak lob action, Detroit could be fun to watch. While they run the floor, Monroe will be assigned to the paint, where he and Tony Mitchell (who might be the steal of the draft) will be formidable bigs. If Cheeks can find a way to utilize the individual talents of his new-look team (they even have new jerseys) and make them play as one, Detroit might even flirt with a run to the second round of the playoffs.

A Hibbert-Bynum matchup in the first round of the playoffs also sounds intriguing. That matchup might very well take place (given both are healthy), as Cleveland is my likely candidate for the seventh seed. The success of the Cavs leans largely on Bynum's state of consciousness this season. If he is physically and mentality bought in to Cleveland basketball, then Eastern Conference big men should be forewarned. When healthy, he is arguably the best center in the NBA. When you team him with Kryie Irving, an incredibly dangerous duo is created. Kryie is the future of the league, and might be the best PG basketball has to offer in three to five years.

Kyrie will spend some time at the shooting guard position as a direct result of Dan Gilbert acquiring Jarret Jack from Golden State. Jack and fellow newcomers Earl Clark and first overall selection of the draft Anthony Bennett look to compliment Bynum and Irving with their new roles, which are still being shaped today. These Lebronless Cavs have two of the most talented payers in the league, and a number of potentially effective role players. As a result, they should find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since their King abandoned them.

The last team to sneak into the playoffs will be the Boston Celtics. Yes, I know the Celtics are supposed to be in rebuilding mode. But if they are planning their lottery picks already, they'll have to wait another year. Boston did little to earn my eighth seed, but was granted it via process of elimination.

The Raptors might enjoy their time on SportsCenter's Top Ten, but their above the rim play is not enough for a playoff bid. I've also began mourning for the 76ers following a quick glance at their roster. Philadelphia might be the bottomless pit of the NBA next season. And the Bobcats surely won't make the playoffs either. The Wizards still have no idea how to play as a team, and the Hawks lost too much talent. Victor Oladipo is the only positive thing about Orlando. And O.J. Mayo is the only true offensive weapon in Milwaukee, and he should be a team's third or fourth option, not first. This leaves one team: The Boston Celtics.

Should NBA fans be surprised that the league's most successful franchise might make the playoffs? I certainly understand that losing Pierce, Garnett, and Doc took the life out of Boston. But now they have a young nucleus and a young coach who are beginning the process of re-energizing Beantown to the best of their ability. Boston still has Rondo, one of the game's best. He will be accompanied by returners Jeff Greene, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley (who is the basketball's best defender of point and shooting guards), and Courtney Lee. Kelly Olynyk out of Gonzaga is also a bright spot for the team's future. If Boston drafts as well as they did this past June, then their road to recovery might be quicker than expected. Olynyk will quickly become one of Rondo's favorite targets. If the 7'0 rookie can discover his role among the returners, and Rondo returns to prime form, Boston should make a run at the East's final playoff spot.

Thus, my predicted Eastern Conference playoff seedings look like this:

1. Miami Heat
2. Indiana Pacers
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Chicago Bulls
5. New York Knicks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
8. Boston Celtics

Room For Improvement

Michigan State (MSU) starting point Keith Appling led his team in both points and assists during his junior campaign last season. For most, this seems like quite an accomplished feat worth noting. For Appling, however, this is far from enough. For Michigan State to be a serious contender and make a run at the 2014 Final Four in Arlington (TX), Appling, I believe, needs to carry his game to the next level more than any other senior basketball player in the BIG Conference.

Spartan head coach Tom Izzo has made a living assisting decent point guards in becoming MSU legends as well as fan favorites. During the 2012-2013 season, Appling averaged 13.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per contest while serving as Izzo's point guard. These are very respectable numbers, and there is a greater number out there who would love to be able to put up such statistics on a division one college basketball team. But for the (co-) captain of the Spartans, these numbers represent mediocrity at best. If he wants to be compared to the likes of his predeccesors before him, he must learn to do what it takes to lead his team to a final four just as Mateen Cleaves, Drew Neitzel, and Kalin Lucas each did. If next season's Appling-led Spartans fail to reach Arlington, the 6'1, 190 pound point guard will be the first four-year player ever under head coach Tom Izzo to not reach a final four. One major factor separating Appling from the likes of the point guards who came before him is that he, unlike Cleaves, Neitzel, and Lucas, often fades in big-game situations.

With the exception of an early victory over Kansas and a double digit win over barely ranked Wisconsin, Appling was not at his best when his best was needed against top competition last season. Even when Sparty mopped inner-state rival Michigan off court with a 75-52 win at the Breslin in February, Appling still only scored 11 points on 14 shots and dished out only one assist. He shot a distressed 28.6% from the field, 16.% from three point rage, and 40% from the charity stripe. The Izzone, MSU's highly touted student section, clearly paid more attention to the score than Appling's numbers as they controversially shouted in unison, "Appling's better!" This bold yet mindless statement referred to the on-going comparisons between Appling and last season's Naismith Award winner and current member of the Utah Jazz, Trey Burke. Though I too was cheering for the Spartan guard in that game, I am not willing to lose my credibility by blindly deeming Appling the better of the two floor generals.

Burke usually showed up when it mattered, as evident by the distinct reality that he took his team to the NCAA championship. Appling can't say the same. In two games against the BIG champion Indiana Hoosiers (IU), he scored only nine points and nearly matched that number with six turnovers. After struggling against IU, Appling then scored only three points and had one lone assist against the always tough Ohio State Buckeyes. Later in the rematch against the Wolverines, he scored in single digits yet again with 9 points and was pick-pocketed ( in the final seconds of the game) by Burke, who managed to score the winning layup for Michigan as he stole not only the ball but also the game for the maize and blue. This play, I believe, solidified Burke's superiority over Appling. Unforuntately for Spartan fans, it got worse.

MSU basketball fans also know March Madness as the month of Tom Izzo. Izzo consistently has his guys ready come tournament time. For some reason, that was not the case for Appling who scored only two points in 28 minutes in the team's second round victory over Memphis, and had not a single assist in the sweet 16 loss to a better, more disciplined Duke Blue Devils team. He is the starting point guard. He is the captain. For a team's leader and point guard to not manage a single assist against the Blue Devils in a win-or-go-home situation is completely unacceptable for Spartan Nation.

The fact of the matter is Appling has been a good point thus far in his three seasons played under coach Izzo. Good, however, does not suffice for a program with championship level aspirations. In comparison to the guys who came before him, Appling has been mediocre at best. When Appling scored 49 points in the high school basketball state championship game to conclude his junior season at Detroit Pershing High School in 2009, the bar was immediately set higher than most can reach. Expectations sky-rocketed following that performance, and many thought Appling would be among the nation's top PG's.

Inconsistent shooting and turnovers remain Appling's achilles heel, however, and have hindered him from being honored among the game's elite. His turnover average has not declined at all since his sophomore season. Appling's assist to turnover ratio from the past two seasons is at 3.6 assists to 2.3 turnovers a game, which is hardly impressive given the expectations that dawn on him. Equally unimpressive was his 41% shooting from the field last season, and his 28.5% from three point range over the last two seasons. Appling's free throw percentage from last season (74.9%) also warrants public criticism.

If next season is to be the year of the Sparty, such numbers will have to climb. In fact, everything about Appling's game will have to trend in an uphill manner. With Derrick Nix now gone, Appling has to make his presence felt as the leader. His shooting needs to improve, but there will surely be games where he struggles from outside. It will be in those games that his legacy will be unfolded, revealed. It will be then that Spartan fans either celebrate or scrutinize, and find out if their man is capable of carrying the torch. It will be then that Appling's intangibles, leadership, and grit must emerge. It will be then, in the big games, when his shot might feel rusty, that Keith Appling must find a way to get it done.

94 Feet

     I don't know a single basketball player who doesn't like to put the ball in the hoop. Everyone likes to score. People will sprint the floor if they know they'll get an open dunk or layup as a result of doing so. What I find telling about a person's game is if that same player will sprint the floor in order to stop an opposing player's attempt at a finish in transition. While the majority of basketball players love to score, the minority, I believe, truly love to defend.

     An official basketball court is 94 feet long. You can tell who loves to defend by who uses all 94 feet of the court. There's something honorable, in my opinion, about a player who uses the entire court on both sides of the ball. A player who mans up chest to chest with the offensive player before the ball is even inbounded is the player I want on my team. He is the player who will sprint the floor on both ends of the court. He is the player who will dedicate his body and his intentions to being not only a ferocious defender, but a selfless teammate as well.

     There is something beautiful about a defense-first mentality. They say defense wins championships, so why not direct every ounce of your energy to locking up on that end of the court? Well, many players choose not to because the glory doesn't lie on D. More recognition comes with "getting buckets" or "dropping dimes." Some players are smart enough to know they won't be in the newspaper for making an extra and necessary rotation on defense, or for applying ball pressure that didn't result in a steal (but might have worn down the ball handler). These same players, unfortunately, are also dumb enough to care about how best to get recognized. Others simply choose not to defend because they decide to succumb to their fatigue. They lack the necessary will power to ignore their heavy breathing. These are the selfish  players. Fortunately for the game of basketball, not every one is like this.

     When a player dedicates his efforts to do everything in his power not to let the other team score, his mind is in the right place. The best teammates are the ones who find the beauty in getting nasty on D. These are the ones who sacrifice their bodies for the good of the team, because picking up full court man to man and applying relentless ball pressure on each possession is a tiring process. To put it short, it's one heck of a workout, both physically and mentally. The toughest players don't relent, don't stop, but continue to pressure play after play. They have the strongest will power because they continuously overcome the mental facade that their body needs to rest. They believe being tired is simply a choice they do not partake in. They believe they can draw a ten (or eight) second violation all on their own, because the offensive player doesn't need the luxury of having room to breathe. The best examples of NBA talent exhibiting such a mindset are former Detroit Piston Lindsey Hunter and Hall-of-Famer Gary Payton, who is better known as "The Glove." Former Hawk Mookie Blaylock, current Houston Rocket back-up point guard Patrick Beverly, and current Boston Celtic Avery Bradley also come to mind. Because they were so dedicated to playing both ends of the court, getting low in a defensive stance was instinctual, or second nature for these guys. These five are the guys I study most when attempting to pick up defensive habits for my own game. Fortunately for me, I've had the privilege of playing with great defenders, though less well-known than these pros, in person for quite some time.


     Growing up in Rockford, Michigan, I played at a school that brainwashed us with a defensive mentality. Former Rockford High School head coach Steve Majerle and current Rockford High assistant Ryan DeKuiper instilled in me (along with many of their past and present players) an attitude that deemed defense the perfect time to get nasty and go all out. While offense should be smooth like Alicia Keys's voice, Coach Majerle would say, defense is scream-o, its heavy metal, its Metallica. I not only got to pick their brains about this mindset, but I also got to watch and learn from some of Rockford's best. I credit much of my desire to play great defense to two former Rockford point guards. Jarad Smith and my big brother, Nathan Van Pelt, are without a doubt a pair of the best on-the-ball defenders the Michigan High School Athletic Association (MHSAA) have ever seen. Unfortunately for point guards in the OK-Red conference, they played on the same team. I still credit Nathan for introducing the one-handed face guard to high school basketball in Michigan, and Jarad for the most intense, active hands I've ever witnessed from a basketball player. Each of these guys did not wait for their man to get to half court before they hounded the ball, but they picked up immediately. They used all 94 feet of the court. In other words, they got nasty.

     Like Nathan and Jarad, I too have a passion for picking up opposing ball handlers before they even turn around to see the court. I've been recognized by my previous coaches as an above average defender. However, I must admit I don't think I've ever even been the best defender on my own team.

     Throughout my high school years I was fortunate to team up with two other guards very similar to myself. Though we all have much different skillsets, we were all small, quick guards. Gabe Vanderjagt, Brogan Bibler, and I, as a result of our speed, made a living running various presses designed by our coaches, Majerle and DeKuiper, who are two great basketball minds. Brogan Bibler, or "Bibby" as I call him, I also must admit, was a better defender than I. Playing alongside him was a pleasure because he had a lock-down mentality like no other. Whether he was checking former University of Michigan speedster Kelvin Grady or simply guarding the tough guards of the OK-Red, Bibby did his thing. In college he pursued football at Grand Valley University where he also played on the defensive side of the ball. But had he wanted to, Brogan could have played small college basketball because of his unyielding ability to shut down opposing team's stars. I always thought of myself as a good defender, but in hind sight, I must say Bibby was the best of the best. While we were very similar in our mindset and our ability to pressure the ball, he was a little faster, a little stronger, and a little bigger than I was. That put him over the top.

     Much like my high school coaches stressed defense, my college coaches also believed that defense was one thing that could and should always remain consistent. You can shoot lights out one night, and go cold another night. Individuals and teams alike can have off-days on the offensive end of the court. But, defense, moreover, is something that can be brought day in and day out, as my coaches would constantly preach to me and my teammates at Spring Arbor University (SAU). I was a defense-first guy in college too, but stand by my opinion that there were guys better than I. Willie Pickvet might be the best defensive player SAU has ever seen, with his length, athleticism, and ability to guard multiple positions. He, however, did not consistently pick up full court because he was a big man. He, instead, dominated the paint. There were others, however, who I feel could defend the perimeter better than myself.

     While I was able, for the most part, to apply pressure, stay in front of my man, and occasionally draw five-second violations, I only led the SAU Cougars in steals my freshman season. During my sophomore, junior, and senior campaigns, my fellow classmate and back-court mate Chris Bellamy led the team in that category. He even finished 8th in the nation this past season with 2.4 steals per contest. He was not only better than I in the passing lanes, but Bellamy guarded four different positions while I usually checked opposing point and shooting guards. Bellamy had the ability to pressure guards as well as block shots and pull down boards (as evident by the fact that he is a member of the 600 rebound club at SAU). Every SAU follower knows he can score, but Bellamy also has a better feel for the game than anyone I've ever played with, which is precisely why I deem him an underrated and better defender than myself.

     I have a great deal of appreciation for great defenders, which guides my intentions in writing this short piece. I am very passionate about defending, doing the little things, and getting "dirty", as well as playing with players who don't make boosting their offensive stats their top priority. As a result, I'd like to thank all of the guys who "got nasty" and locked up with me during my high school and collegiate years. I also owe a great deal of thanks to the guys who went before me and set that foundation. That foundation has programmed in me a defense-first mindset in which I am extremely enthusiastic about. I call that foundation the "94-feet mentality." It's my favorite part about the game of basketball.


    

All-Star Snub

     If you have been following the world of sports lately, you probably know all about Dwight Howard's move to Houston, Aaron Hernandez's situation with the law, and Andy Murray's dominant performance in his own country at Wimbledon. If you watch SportsCenter much, baseball fan or not, you've probably also heard the name Yasiel Puig.
     Puig is a 22-year old Cuban right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's been in the news as of late not just because he is a 6'3, 245 pound machine, but because his potential position on the National League's (NL) All-Star roster has been highly debated. He is now in my news because his name is not on that roster, and it's quite a shame.
     I have heard multiple arguments as to why #66 for the Dodgers doesn't belong in the "Midsummer Classic." Not one of them convinces me that Puig should not be playing under the lights of Citi Field next Tuesday night.
     The man has quickly built himself a resume proving his worth as one of Major League Baseball's rising stars and best players. Puig is the complete package with a wide range of impressive skills that should rank him among the game's elite. His batting average (just less than .400) has caught the attention of baseball followers around the world. In fact, it belittles what all-star starter Bryce Harper has done this season. Harper, who will be starting in the all-star game for the first time in his career, has hit for .274 in 55 games. After seeing such numbers, I assumed Harper's power must have propelled him to earn him a starting spot. That, however, is not the case since he has only hit for 13 home runs, which is pretty comparable to the 8 home runs Puig hit in the highly scrutinized amount of games he has played in (36).
     Puig's critiques continue to point to the number 36. He's only played in 36 games, they keep repeating. Well, in those 36 games he's shown what he can do. In those 36 games he's made a name for himself and become one of baseball's most popular players. In those 36 games he's put up league-leading numbers that cannot be ignored. 36 games is enough to recognize if a player can play or not. And there is no arguing he can play with the best of the best.
     I have also heard that he might have fallen into a slump and gone cold from the plate had he played more games. I don't think any person in the world can refute that. He MIGHT have. A lot of things MIGHT happen. Last I checked, there is no all-star committee that analyzes a series of "what-ifs." The fact of the matter is he hasn't hit a slump. Even if he does experience a hitting drought, which is very possible because hitting .400 is a rare feat, it doesn't change the great things he's done thus far. He's been consistent ever since day one. He's been consistently electrifying, and has brought hype and attention to a sport that lacks the ratings of the NBA or NFL. He's only been in the league since June 3rd, and he already has a top ten selling jersey in the league.
     The fans appreciate him, and the MLB should too. He is living in the city of angels, which draws the second highest amount of television ratings in the nation. He not only has baseball fans captivated, but non-baseball fans have also been drawn to the sport through their intrigue of the Cuban superstar (but not all-star). 

     Many fans love him, and many opposing players hate him. He's already been labeled arrogant by the opposition because of his business-like mentality. Puig, not used to the media and bright lights when he first arrived, would refuse to speak to media. He doesn't want the attention. This is something I admire. While some view this as cocky and dismissive, I read into it differently. I see a humble kid who doesn't want glory, but just wants to play baseball at a high level. He has a get-down-to-business mentality which seems to work nicely for him on the field.
    Puig is not only an excellent hitter, but he has speed around the bases on offense, and has shown flashes of his potential to become one of baseball's best defenders in the outfield. He covers ground while chasing down fly balls and has a potent arm just waiting to rack up assists. His skillset and passion have energized the city of L.A. and the Dodgers fans who have often given him standing ovations and requested curtain calls. More importantly, his team is now winning. The Dodgers were 23-32 when Puig arrived, and are now trailing the Arizona Diamondbacks by only a 1 1/2 games with a winning record of 46-45.
     The numbers don't lie. Yasiel Puig can do it all. He can hit, he can defend, he can create a spark, and he can lead his team to wins. He has not played as many games as the other outfielders on the N.L. All-Star team, but he is certainly just as talented and successful, and consequently, just as worthy of a roster spot. Baseball's 2013 All-Star game will be missing the most exciting player the sport has to offer. If that's not a snub, I don't know what is.

Hewitt No Longer A Star

     At age 20, Australian tennis player Lleyton Hewitt was the youngest male ever to be ranked number one in the world. That was twelve years ago. Now, the 32-year old native of Adelaide, South Australia, currently ranked 70th, is beginning to reveal his aging limitations.
     Though he once owned his sport, his reign among the big dogs is coming to a screeching halt. There was a time when Hewitt dominated his opposition, and especially his rivals. He once held a win-loss record of 7-2 against arch rival and current star Roger Federer, and led Andy Roddick 6 games to 1 in their first seven head to head matches. However, father time has gotten the best of Hewitt, as have many tennis professionals. Federer has now won 16 of his last 17 against Hewitt, and American Andy Roddick
took six of the last seven against the Australian.
    His fans hoped 2013 would serve him well, but those hopes have been destroyed to some extent. In Hewitt's first tournament of the year he lost in Brisbane in straight sets to Denis Istomin, a 26-year old Russian unknown by most casual sports fans. In late May, he was once again ousted by Gilles Simon in the first round of this year's French Open. Wimbledon, Hewitt presumed, would finally be his opportunity to turn it around.
    Hewitt surprised his doubters by showing up big in round one of the prestigious tournament. He put on a spirited performance flashing signs of his old self defeating Stanislas Warinka of Switzerland in straight sets. This match, which was very encouraging to the prideful sports fans of Australia, was a teaser. Round 2 of Wimbledon would go differently.
    Hewitt fell to journeyman Dustin Brown in five sets. While he put on a respectable performance nearly going the distance against a younger, more versatile competitor, in the end, it was not enough. Hewitt is widely regarded as a defensive counter-puncher who prefers to stay back near the baseline during a rally. This style of play hurt him at times against Brown, who has a massive serve, ample athleticism, and an unpredictable style of play. Hewitt said Brown's craftiness and style of play was tough to block out, and he admitted to losing his way during the match.
     The up-and-coming Brown humbled Hewitt and his fans. While flashes of his past were occasionally put on display, Hewitt no longer possesses the ability to dominate tennis consistently. His prime is far behind him. He is still a good player, but can no longer be labeled great, or elite. Unfortunately for his fans, we have already seen Hewitt at his best.

The Wrong Right Pick

Entering this year's NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons badly needed a shooting guard, or just a shooter in general. The only two-guards on their roster were Rodney Stuckey (who doesn't quite fit at shooting guard or point guard) and Kim English (who belongs in the D-League). Thus, it seems logical that Detroit selected Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a shooting guard out of Georgia, with the eighth pick of the draft. The 6'5 guard has both athleticism and a shot that are difficult to overlook. Obviously, he was not overlooked by Detroit. They needed a shooting guard. So Dumars made the correct pick given the team's needs, right? Wrong. Dumars made the right pick for the roster, but the wrong pick for the organization and future of the Detroit Pistons.

Dumars missed out on a real game changer, the national college player of the year, and a Kyrie Irving-like talent when he selected Caldwell-Pope. With all due respect to the former Bulldog, the Pistons were just as foolish as the seven teams who drafted before them and failed to select this draft's best player, Trey Burke. It's one thing to draft the position of need, but its another (tragic) thing to surpass the draft's best player, especially when he has slipped several spots to your team. Former Michigan Wolverine Trey Burke is not only one of the prospects with the most potential in the 2013 NBA Draft, but he is also the player most NBA ready. Though he stands at only 6'0 tall, he is without a doubt the most skilled player who will enter the NBA in 2013. As just a sophomore at the University of Michigan, Burke not only won the Cousy Award which goes to the nation's top point guard, but he also claimed the Wooden and Naismith Award's which recognize college basketball's best player. His accolades speak for themselves.

Perhaps Dumars deems awards and accolades as overrated. Well, Burke didn't just win awards, he won games too (and he put up numbers while doing it). The point guard led his team to the NCAA National Championship against Louisville, and finished his sophomore campaign tallying 18.6 points per game and dishing out 6.7 assists per game. I get that Detroit is currently home to Jose Calderon, Andrew Bynum, Brandon Knight, and Rodney Stuckey, who can all play point guard. Burke, moreover, would surprise me if he's not better than all four of the aforementioned guards. I also get that Dumars wanted a shooter. While Caldwell-Pope might be able to fill that void, Burke is actually the better shooter. Caldwell-Pope shot 33.9% from beyond the arc in his career at Georgia, while Burke shot 36.7% from three point range in that same two-year span. As sad as this is to think about, had Detroit taken Burke with the 8th pick in the draft, he could have very well been their best player from day one. Unfortunately, for Pistons fans, we will never know if such a statement reigns true. Dumars, furthermore, has had a history of regret come draft time. Perhaps the year 2003 rings a bell?







***As a die-hard Michigan State fan, it pained me to write an article praising a former Wolverine.