College Basketball: VP's Preseason Top Ten

College basketball is upon us. With the season tipping off this week, I thought it was the appropriate time to reveal my top ten teams heading into what I expect to be a season of much parity (which should only increase the madness of March Madness). Not surprisingly, the teams at the top are no strangers to playing favorite. A handful of traditional powerhouses lead the way once again as the 2013-2014 season begins.

1. Michigan State Spartans: I really hate to do this, but I have to pick my MSU Spartans as the most likely candidate to win a championship. I honestly tried not to pick Tom Izzo's bunch, but just couldn't ignore the potent roster. Coach Izzo's  resume speaks for itself, and unfortunately for the rest of the Big Ten Conference, he's got quite a versatile roster to manage. Denzel Valentine, who his coach deems the hardest worker on the team, will certainly be the x-factor while having to fulfill more play-making duties when starting point guard Keith Appling is out of the game.  MSU will need Branden Dawson to be their "easy-bucket guy," and get points around the rim the way Raymar Morgan used to do because the loss of Derrick Nix down low will certainly have an impact. On another note, watch Gary Harris shine this season as he preps for a run at the NBA lottery.

2. Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky plays Michigan State on November 12th. If they can steal that one early in the season, I may have to swap my 1 and 2 rankings as a result. John Calipari isn't messing around this year; he scheduled North Carolina, Michigan State, Louisvile, and Baylor all as non-conference opponents before SEC play gets underway. Clearly he wants his young squad tested. And though young, this team should will be loaded and dynamic. Once again, Kentucky has brought in the nation's top recruiting class led by the Harrison twins. Coach Cal's teams are never out of the picture for long, and they'll be right back in the thick of things this season.

3. Duke Blue Devils: My top five is filled with teams that have basketball masterminds running the show. But Coach K is in a league of his own. The best coach in America has a very coachable, gritty group to teach in 2013-2014. The back court looks good with Quinn Cook, Tyler Thornton, Rasheed Sulaimon, and Andrew Dawkins serving as leaders. All eyes, however, will be on highly touted freshman Jabari Parker. One Sports Illustrated magazine unfairly and incorrectly labeled Parker the next LeBron. If we hold him to that standard, his freshman season will be regarded as a failure. We ought to watch Parker objectively, and wait and see how the 18-year old handles playing multiple positions for the Blue Devils. Despite having talent, I believe in Duke more for their coaching and discipline than for the skillsets on their roster.

4. Arizona Wildcats: Sean Miller added the McDonald's All-American game MVP, Aaron Gordon, to the roster. As a result, things are looking up for 'Zona. Gordon, who was twice named Mr. Basketball in the state of California, also won two state championships in the Golden State. Gordon was also the leading scorer and rebounder for the US U-19 team that took home the gold medal this past summer. So, much like in Kansas and Kentucky, their is a talented youth movement hoping to do big things on the court down in Southwest America.

5. Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas might have the youngest team in America, yet is still favored to repeat as Big 12 champs. After losing McLemore and Withey to the NBA, Bill Self went out and got himself some reinforcements. One of those reinforcements comes in the form of a 6-8 guard from Canada named Andrew Wiggins. Yes, a 6-8 guard is correct. So if any one college player is to be so bold as to compare himself to two-time NBA champion LeBron James, Wiggins would be the one to do so (in years to come that is). He'll most likely go number one in next year's NBA Draft, but whether or not he can lead a team as a youngster or not remains to be seen. The Jayhawks' greatest challenge will be how disciplined they can be in close, late-game situations.

6. Louisville Cardinals: Losing Gorgui Deng and Peyton Siva hurts. Those are the type of departures that separate a national title type team from a conference title type team. Right now, I'm acknowledging Louisville's limits and deeming them a conference title type team. They've got their coach in Pitino. They've got an excellent core of returnees with Russ Smith, Chane Behanon, Luke Hancock,  Wayne Blackshear, and God willing, Kevin Ware all coming back to school. But Peyton Siva was the catalyst. Much like the Oklahoma City Thunder of the NBA realized the importance of Westbrook come playoff time last season, I believe the Louisville Cardinals will also gain a higher level of appreciation for what Siva did for their program as this season unfolds. Can he be replaced? Can a freshman point guard come in and lead a team that just won a national championship? I just don't know.

7. Virginia Commonwealth Rams: Shaka Smart's squad had an up-and-down year last season. Consistency was nonexistent. That must be the focus of this year's squad, which returns four of its top five scorers from a team that despite lacking consistency, showed an all-around explosive level of talent. Darieus Theus and Troy Daniels were the only key guys to leave VCU, which means this team that's played together for some time now should have on-court chemistry second to no team. This should be the best team Shaka Smart has ever coached. Don't be surprised if the Rams have another Final Four run up their sleeves when March comes around.

8. Wichita State Shockers: It's time we give teams like Wichita State and VCU their due before the season, rather than after. This Wichita State team could be better than last season's team that stormed all the way to the Final Four. Cleanthony Early, who notched 25 points and 10 rebounds against the defending champion Lousiville Cardinals in the NCAA tournament last season, is back. As is Ron Baker, who might be college basketball's best shooter. Evan Wessel, another lights out shooter, will be returning from his redshirt year. Together, Baker and Wessel should be responsible for creating tremendous floor spacing on offense for WSU. The Shockers are set on the wings, and brought in two transfers to control the paint down low. The biggest question mark for this team is whether or not Fred VanVleet can be the floor general that Malcom Armstead was last year.

9. Oklahoma State University: The Cowboys return their top scorers, top assist men, and top rebounder for the upcoming season. Travis Ford has himself a takeover-the-game-at-any-moment type player in Marcus Smart. Smart, one of the NBA's top prospects, averaged 15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 4.2 APG as a freshman. I wouldn't be surprised to see his scoring average peek closer to 20 PPG in year two of his college career. It might need to if Oklahoma State plans on stealing the Big 12 title away from the Jayhawks.

10. Florida Gators: You can't lose Mike Rosario, Erik Murphy, and Kenny Boyton and still be in the top five. But starting center Patrick Young is returning, as are a host of other roll players from last season. Donovan also earned himself a superb recruiting class that will be looking to provide some fire power immediately. While quite the contrary is true in football, the SEC is far from a juggernaut of a conference. Kentucky should be the only in-conference threat to this restructured team from the Sunshine State. If the Wildcats stumble, an SEC title is once again realistic for Florida.

Room For Improvement

Michigan State (MSU) starting point Keith Appling led his team in both points and assists during his junior campaign last season. For most, this seems like quite an accomplished feat worth noting. For Appling, however, this is far from enough. For Michigan State to be a serious contender and make a run at the 2014 Final Four in Arlington (TX), Appling, I believe, needs to carry his game to the next level more than any other senior basketball player in the BIG Conference.

Spartan head coach Tom Izzo has made a living assisting decent point guards in becoming MSU legends as well as fan favorites. During the 2012-2013 season, Appling averaged 13.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per contest while serving as Izzo's point guard. These are very respectable numbers, and there is a greater number out there who would love to be able to put up such statistics on a division one college basketball team. But for the (co-) captain of the Spartans, these numbers represent mediocrity at best. If he wants to be compared to the likes of his predeccesors before him, he must learn to do what it takes to lead his team to a final four just as Mateen Cleaves, Drew Neitzel, and Kalin Lucas each did. If next season's Appling-led Spartans fail to reach Arlington, the 6'1, 190 pound point guard will be the first four-year player ever under head coach Tom Izzo to not reach a final four. One major factor separating Appling from the likes of the point guards who came before him is that he, unlike Cleaves, Neitzel, and Lucas, often fades in big-game situations.

With the exception of an early victory over Kansas and a double digit win over barely ranked Wisconsin, Appling was not at his best when his best was needed against top competition last season. Even when Sparty mopped inner-state rival Michigan off court with a 75-52 win at the Breslin in February, Appling still only scored 11 points on 14 shots and dished out only one assist. He shot a distressed 28.6% from the field, 16.% from three point rage, and 40% from the charity stripe. The Izzone, MSU's highly touted student section, clearly paid more attention to the score than Appling's numbers as they controversially shouted in unison, "Appling's better!" This bold yet mindless statement referred to the on-going comparisons between Appling and last season's Naismith Award winner and current member of the Utah Jazz, Trey Burke. Though I too was cheering for the Spartan guard in that game, I am not willing to lose my credibility by blindly deeming Appling the better of the two floor generals.

Burke usually showed up when it mattered, as evident by the distinct reality that he took his team to the NCAA championship. Appling can't say the same. In two games against the BIG champion Indiana Hoosiers (IU), he scored only nine points and nearly matched that number with six turnovers. After struggling against IU, Appling then scored only three points and had one lone assist against the always tough Ohio State Buckeyes. Later in the rematch against the Wolverines, he scored in single digits yet again with 9 points and was pick-pocketed ( in the final seconds of the game) by Burke, who managed to score the winning layup for Michigan as he stole not only the ball but also the game for the maize and blue. This play, I believe, solidified Burke's superiority over Appling. Unforuntately for Spartan fans, it got worse.

MSU basketball fans also know March Madness as the month of Tom Izzo. Izzo consistently has his guys ready come tournament time. For some reason, that was not the case for Appling who scored only two points in 28 minutes in the team's second round victory over Memphis, and had not a single assist in the sweet 16 loss to a better, more disciplined Duke Blue Devils team. He is the starting point guard. He is the captain. For a team's leader and point guard to not manage a single assist against the Blue Devils in a win-or-go-home situation is completely unacceptable for Spartan Nation.

The fact of the matter is Appling has been a good point thus far in his three seasons played under coach Izzo. Good, however, does not suffice for a program with championship level aspirations. In comparison to the guys who came before him, Appling has been mediocre at best. When Appling scored 49 points in the high school basketball state championship game to conclude his junior season at Detroit Pershing High School in 2009, the bar was immediately set higher than most can reach. Expectations sky-rocketed following that performance, and many thought Appling would be among the nation's top PG's.

Inconsistent shooting and turnovers remain Appling's achilles heel, however, and have hindered him from being honored among the game's elite. His turnover average has not declined at all since his sophomore season. Appling's assist to turnover ratio from the past two seasons is at 3.6 assists to 2.3 turnovers a game, which is hardly impressive given the expectations that dawn on him. Equally unimpressive was his 41% shooting from the field last season, and his 28.5% from three point range over the last two seasons. Appling's free throw percentage from last season (74.9%) also warrants public criticism.

If next season is to be the year of the Sparty, such numbers will have to climb. In fact, everything about Appling's game will have to trend in an uphill manner. With Derrick Nix now gone, Appling has to make his presence felt as the leader. His shooting needs to improve, but there will surely be games where he struggles from outside. It will be in those games that his legacy will be unfolded, revealed. It will be then that Spartan fans either celebrate or scrutinize, and find out if their man is capable of carrying the torch. It will be then that Appling's intangibles, leadership, and grit must emerge. It will be then, in the big games, when his shot might feel rusty, that Keith Appling must find a way to get it done.