The dynamics of the NBA’s Western Conference seem to reshape
themselves year by year. Unlike in the East, where Miami is the
clear-cut favorite, the parody of today’s Western Conference is
undeniable.It’s that same parody that creates a sense of exhilaration for basketball fans come playoff time. Throughout the past two decades, the West has traditionally been a better conference from top to bottom, as evident by the 8 vs 1 seed upsets in 2007 (when the Baron Davis-led warriors defeated Dirk’s Mavs) and 2009 (when the Grizz topped Coach Pop’s always tough San Antonio squad).
With the current depth of talented teams out west, 2014 could very well be host to some more thrilling upsets. I guess that’s why TNT asserts that the NBA knows drama. If drama is to come in the form of another top seeded team being upended, then let this be a warning to KD and crew, because the Thunder will be seeded on top come playoff time.
The Thunder are only two seasons removed from a trip to the NBA Finals, and thought they don’t have Harden anymore, I believe they would have been right back there last season had Russ not been the latest victim of a tragic yet ever-so-popular knee injury. With their point guard healthy, they earned the West’s top spot last year as the regular season concluded (despite no longer having Blackbeard, who moved on to Houston). Their current roster looks nearly the same as last season’s. The biggest difference is that their opponents will now be facing a fed-up, impatient Durant, who’s getting sick of waiting for his first ring. The net result will be a #1 seed.
My second seed goes to the franchise that’s been completely flipped upside down from where it was a decade ago, the Los Angeles Clippers. I’ve never heard of trading for a coach, but LobCity made it happen, and they won’t regret it. Doc Rivers will prove just how much difference a head coach can make in this league. He has to be the second best coach (trailing only Popovich), and is now rejuvenated on the west coast after coaching an aging Celtics team that was nearing it’s window on the east coast. What enticed him to make the change is that he’s now got a roster to work with that is both youthful and skillful.
Chris Paul, the best leader and point guard in the league, has some new faces to work with. While the root of LobCity (Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin) returns, the team also added some much needed shooting to create room for those pick-and-rolls which so often lead to the above-the-rim action Clipper fans are growing accustomed to seeing. J.J. Redick will create room for CP3 to do his thing, and Dudley, a glue guy, will make shots and do all the little things to help his team improve on last year’s record-breaking season.
I think the pieces of the puzzle fit together nicely for L.A.C. to
win a lot of games this upcoming season. To get the #2 seed in a tough
Western Conference would be quite a feat for this new-look team, though I
think they can accomplish that feat. I’m not sold, however, on their
chances to go anywhere past the conference semifinals come playoff time.While I think their roster was put together nicely for the stretch of an 82-game season, I don’t like the lack of defenders they have at the 2 and 3 positions, which I think will hurt them in a 7-game series against opposing teams’ superstars. Dudley and Redick will fit in great offensively with what the team is trying to accomplish, but can they really win a championship with those two guys owning starting spots? I don’t think so. Not to mention, Jamaal Crawford is the only guy other than CP3 who can create his own shot, and that is concerning for Clipper title hopes. I will admit, though, that Doc usually tends to find a way. I believe he’ll make it work through 82 games, but come post-season, I just think their weaknesses will be exposed on the bigger stage. Nevertheless, the Clippers get my #2 seed.
The Golden State Warriors, much like superstar Kevin Durant, have a chip on their shoulders. Such a mentality starts with the head coach, Mark Jackson, who is has already proved himself to be a confident, passionate new coach in this league. Though he failed to meet his promise to make the playoffs with the Warriors in year one, he put confidence back into a desperate franchise and delivered in year two, as the Warriors claimed the 6th seed in 2013. Now that they’ve tasted success and improved their roster from what was an already talented club, they should only improve (hence me granting them my #3 seed).
Curry, the best shooter in the NBA, has made
himself into more of an all-around player and a top-15 talent in this
league. He and Klay Thompson together are deadly from beyond the arc.
Harrison Barnes is also a threat on both ends of the court, and Bogut,
Lee, Green, and Ezeli provide toughness as well as formidable depth down
low. New addition Andre Iguodala will be a great fit for Golden State’s
system as well. He and Barnes will each be able to guard the other
team’s best player, which could make the Warriors extremely versatile on
the defensive end of the floor (which is something they’ve lacked in
the past). It’s not the individual pieces that make Golden State so
dangerous, however, but the play of the unit as a collective group. The
Warriors are a team full of good players who do not care who gets the
credit. They play team ball, and they do so at a very high level.
Another team that knows nothing other than
team basketball is the San Antonio Spurs, who will capture the #4 seed
when the regular season comes to a close. The Spurs, though, have a
style quite contrasting from that of the Warriors. Golden State is
young, energetic, and in a sense, something new for basketball fans. The
Spurs, on the other hand, have been there and done that. They’re the
definition of consistency over time as they’ve done it for so long.
They’re old. They’re fundamental. They’re blue collar. The Spurs do it
without flash.
So why did I drop a team that was one free
throw away from winning the World Championship to a 4 seed? Well, it’s
not because I don’t believe in them. In fact, I do. I wouldn’t be
surprised if the Spurs are back in the Finals next season, because they
know what it takes. Their experience is second to none. The only
difference I see in next season’s team as opposed to last season’s team
is that they are one year older. This means achy knees, sore shoulders,
and back spasms for vets like Ginobili and Duncan. Consequently, Coach
Pop, who is known for resting his players during the regular season,
will do so again more than ever during the course of this upcoming NBA
season. I expect to see the big three on the bench more than in years
past. As a result, I give them my #4 seed. Despite barely giving them
home-court advantage in the first round, I give them a better chance to
make the Finals than my 2-seeded Clippers. But hey, I’m just picking the
seeds right now, not playoff results.
Come round 1 of playoff time the Spurs of
old will be matched up with the Rockets of new. Despite the hype
surrounding D12 teaming with Harden and a handful of shooters, Houston
will finish no better than fifth out west. Sure, you get the positives
as to why I think they will improve on their 8th seed from last season.
They have both Dwight and Asik down low (that’s great for defensive
purposes). Dwight will be playing with a roster similar to the one he
had in Orlando that he took to the finals. Hakeem the Dream, Yao, and
Kevin McHale will all be able to influence the big fella. And last but
not least, Dwight doesn’t even have to be the best player on his team.
All such things are positive for Houston. But one thing excited Houston
fans can’t deny is that with the exception of Patrick Beverly, a backup,
none of the guards on the team play defense. Trying to out-shoot and
out-score people only works for so long. The team brought in Ronnie
Brewer, but he’s an overrated defender who shouldn’t be on the court
long because his defense is not good enough to make up for his lack of
offensive production. So perhaps D12 can cure this problem by clogging
the lane. But if it’s the same D12 of the past two years, that surely
won’t work. He’ll be in foul trouble before Rocket fans can say “HELP.”
The Rockets get my #5 seed because of offensive prowess, not defensive
potency.
My #6 seed goes to the identity-less Lakers.
We’ve seen how poor this team can play. Despite that poor play, and
having probably the most injury-plagued basketball team in NBA history,
the Lakeshow still made the playoffs last season. One cannot overlook
what the Lakers did at the end of the regular season before Kobe went
down with his achilles tear. In case you forgot, they were rolling. And
they got better this off-season. The first step to improvement was
addition by subtraction: ridding themselves of the Dwight Howard drama.
Had Phil been the new coach of L.A.L. (as he should have been), then the
team would be better off with Dwight and the triangle offense. But
since he’s not, D12 has no place in D’Antoni’s system. I think with him
out of the lineup, guys will not be worried about filling his soft ego
with touches, but instead will be focused on their own games and playing
their roles more effectively.
Call me a crazy Lakers fan, but I expect to
see a lively Pau Gasol (who will be getting many more touches) this
season and a much improved Steve Nash. And there is also no question in
my mind that Kobe will be Kobe. He’s the most determined basketball
player of all-time. If he wants to be back in elite form, he will be.
So, the Black Mamba is not a concern of mine. Instead, I’m fascinated by
what this Lakers team might or might not do. They’ve yet to show us
what kind of team they are, but I believe these old guys can get it
done. They did manage to insert some youth into their aching roster.
Nick Young was by far Mitch Kupchak’s best pickup of the off-season. At
age 28, Young has everything the Lakers needed: athleticism, a three
point shot, the ability to create for self, and Laker pride (he’s an
L.A. native). Ryan Kelly, Jordan Hill, Jody Meeks, Wesley Johnson, and
Elias Harris will also be able to provide a youthful sense of energy and
keep their elders (Pau, Kobe, Nash) updated with the newest technology
of the modern era. With that being said, the Lakers could be on the
bubble this year. And even if Pau and Nash don’t succeed like I think
they will, the last time I checked, they still had Kobe Bryant. He’ll be
back in rare form in no time.
While I’ve mentioned that certain teams clicked well as a unit, if one and one team only embodies the word togetherness,
it has to be the Denver Nuggets. This team, which reminds me of the
2004 World Champion Detroit Pistons, is constructed as just that: a team.
Denver has no superstar, but a great number of very good players. Their
relentless style of play makes them tough to play on any given night
because they never take games off, let alone plays off. Despite losing
Iguodala to the Warriors, I didn’t drop them from a 3 seed to a 7 seed
because I think they’ve gotten a lot worse. I think they will be as
tough as ever; I just think other teams have gotten much better.
Denver will be capable of beating anyone and
everyone. They’ll surprise a number of teams in a number of games. Nate
Robinson, Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried, and J.J. Hickson just reek of
energy (on both ends of the court). They’ll remain one of the most
energetic, exciting teams to watch. Yet, I believe their one weakness
will be offensive consistency. While playing in a conference that is
much improved, their sometimes inconsistent efficiency on O will give
them issues at times, especially under first-year head coach Brian Shaw.
As a result, I see them finishing with the #7 seed and eventually
entertaining the Clippers for 7 games in round one come playoff time.
My final seed goes to the Memphis Grizzlies.
I love the way the Grizz play the game. They too, have no superstars.
They have one of the best starting front lines with Marc Gasol and Zack
Randolph, but neither guy is a superstar, and I’m concerned
with their depth following Darrell Arthur’s departure. They’ll be good
defensively, but still need to add another big for support. Mike Miller
was the only addition to a team that badly needed one more scorer on
offense (and didn’t get that scorer). Regardless of player personnel,
the worst decision of the off-season came when a coaching change was
made.
There was no logical reason for firing
Lionel Hollins and replacing him with rookie head coach David Joerger
(formerly of Moorhead State University). It makes no sense to me, nor
did it to the Grizzlies players. The core foundation the team already
has with Conley, Allen, Prince, and the big guys down low is enough to
grant them a playoff birth. But starting over with a new head coach (one
who still has to earn the respect of his players) was not a good move
and might have ruined Memphis’s hopes of making a deep playoff run. The
Grizz round out the Western Conference Playoffs with my #8 seed.
After 82 games of regular season play, your Western Conference seedings will look something like this:
1. Oklahoma City
2. Los Angeles Clippers
3. Golden State Warriors
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Houston Rockets
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Denver Nuggets
8. Memphis Grizzlies
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