VP's Preseason NFL Power Rankings

The NFL season is just hours away, and I’m ready for some football. While preseason thoughts matter very little, the following list should show how each team will fair in this much anticipated 2013-2014 NFL season. These are my carefully considered power rankings:

1. San Francisco 49ers: In just his third season, Colin Kaepernick is as hungry as any player in the league. Unless someone exposes them early, I’m convinced he’s leading a team of no weaknesses. San Fran’s Superbowl hopes confide in Kap’s health, and whether or not he can remain on the field even after a full 16-game season.          
 
2. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan finally got a playoff win under his belt. Now that Stephen Jackson and Usi Umenyiora sure up an already talented roster, there should be a lot more of those to come.

3. Denver Broncos: Preseason injuries to the defense are the only thing holding this team back. Manning’s offense should have no problem outscoring others, especially with new acquisition Wes Welker thrown in the mix. Manning’s been known to turn slot receivers into stars, not that Welker needs any help with that.

4. Green Bay Packers: The Green Machine still has something no other team has, and that’s the best player in football. Aaron Rodgers, now catching up to Bill Gates in another category ($$$), could very well lead the league in passing yards this season.

5. Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson was dynamite in year one. Year two should be much of the same. New addition Cliff Avril adds depth to the team’s blue collar defense, which can’t afford a day off if Seattle is to give the 49ers a run for their money in the NFC West.

6. Houston Texans: J.J. Watt is quietly becoming the best defensive player in the NFL. Houston is balanced and dangerous on both sides of the ball. If Watt’s teammates pick up on his contagious level of passion and intensity, watch out, because the Texans are for real.

7. Detroit Lions: Stafford has no shortage of pass-catchers. Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush ought to be fantasy football stat stuffers, and Detroit’s D-line might be the best in football. Whether or not they have discipline, like with most Lions teams, remains the most daunting question facing this team.

8. Chicago Bears: This Cutler-led attack could be the best Bears offense in a decade, and the defense still has Julius Peppers and Lance Briggs. Starting middle linebacker D.J. Williams, however, is no Brian Urlacher.

9. Washington Redskins: RG3 is as talented as they get. The fate of their season depends solely on his health. He has got to stay healthy and on that field. I repeat: HE HAS GOT TO STAY HEALTHY ON THAT FIELD!

10. New York Giants: You never know what you’re going to get with New York, but they always seem to surprise at just the right time. Eli has the necessary offensive weapons to make another playoff push this year. They’ve just got to get there first.

11. New England Patriots: Seeing New England out of the top ten is atypical, but it’s not because of Brady or Belichick, who are the among the few guys on the roster keeping them near a single digit ranking. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a postseason push just because they are the Patriots, but their lack of weapons on offense is both alarming and tough to ignore.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Last season, Adrian Peterson had 33 runs of 20 yards or more. To put that in perspective, most TEAMS average around 12 per season. The comeback athlete of the year might be enough just by himself to get his guys in purple to the postseason.

13. Baltimore Ravens: The defending Superbowl champs fell out of my top ten because they not only lost the greatest on-the-field leader in football of all time in Ray Lewis, but also big-bodied pass catcher Anquan Boldin. Maybe Joe Flacco could have shared a little of that hard-earned cashflow.

14. Indianapolis Colts: ESPN analyst Mike Greenberg has the Colts in the Superbowl. While I love Andrew Luck as well as the overall youth on this reshaped Indianapolis team, I’m not ready to go that far. If Indy can win the games they ought to, and then pull off some timely upsets, they should be neck and neck with Houston in the AFC South and at least claim a wildcard spot.

15. Cincinnati Bengals: Marvin Lewis’s squad won seven of it’s final eight games last season.  Momentum is certainly on their side. If you’re a fan of young, electric wide receivers, make sure to watch A.J. Greene. He’ll help serve the development of quarterback Andy Dalton.

16. New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton’s a master at his craft, and he’s back. But I don’t know if Payton’s high-powered offense led by Drew Brees will be enough to make up for the many holes of the team’s shaky defense. But certainly, time will tell.            

17. Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly is as unorthodox as they come. No one knows what to expect from him, but I’m buying his ingenuity and inventiveness on offense. Michael Vick is the perfect QB for his system and I’m not sure why there was ever a battle for the position in the first place.

18. Kansas City Chiefs: Former Eagle coach Andy Reid has taken over, and KC is adjusting to a new culture, new head coach, and new starting quarterback. Alex Smith is getting a second chance. Alex, let’s see what you’ve got!

19. Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has talent, but the roster looks much too familiar. They seem to have the same players they’ve had for five seasons now, and Cowboy fans are still waiting on results. I’d say it’s do or die time for Tony Romo, but he just got himself one big fat check. It is, moreover, do or die time for “America’s team”.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Fans of the steel curtain better hope the preseason is no indication of things to come. The Steelers look awful throughout the preseason, and much of that has to do with bumps and bruises. An improved running game and a healthy Roethlisberger are vital keys to Pittsburgh’s success.

21. St. Louis Rams: Coach Fisher’s team is not studded with big name players,  but consists of a bunch of blue collar workman-like guys trying to earn respect for their franchise. It’s been a few years since the Rams flirted with relevancy. Perhaps this could be the year.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The clock is ticking on Josh Freeman. It’s about time he lives up to the hype that once preceded him. On the other side of the ball, Darrelle Revis returns to action in hopes of changing the culture of what was a soft-minded secondary.

23. Arizona Cardinals: The Cards have weapons at the skilled positions. But Carson Palmer is on the decline and injuries to the offensive line aren’t helping. Expect mediocrity out of ‘Zona.

24. Carolina Panthers: After starting so poorly, the Panthers finished last season on a four-game winning streak. Could those four meaningless wins be a sign of things to come? If so, Cam Newton must not sustain his skills and abilities, but improve them if he hopes to take his team to the next level.

25. Tennessee Titans: I’m not sold on Jake Locker as an NFL quarterback. But Chris Johnson is the team’s wildcard. Which Chris shows up will have a tremendous impact on the team’s success in one direction or another.

26. San Diego Chargers: On a franchise normally rooted in offensive principles, I see an improving defense and a slowly weakening offense. Phillip Rivers is still a top tier quarterback who can put up numbers, but the players around him (minus Antonio Gates) seem to be getting worse each season.

27. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill will be an average quarterback at best. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline will serve as his formidable targets, but the offensive line is the key. The big bruisers up front have to protect their young gun under center.

28. Cleveland Browns: The Cleveland management did a good thing when it reached an agreement with Norv Turner. The offensive-savvy coach should be a good fit for Brandon Weeden’s style of play. But when it’s all said and done, the Browns are still the Browns.

29. Buffalo Bills: I’m convinced the Bills will never be good until they become the New York Bills. E.J. Manuel is being thrown in the wildfire from the get-go. I like his athleticism. Do I like him as a long-time quarterback in this league? Not a chance.

30. New York Jets: For the sake of those who don’t care about the media drama that constantly seems to be surrounding the Jets, let’s hope Mark Sanchez doesn’t see the field this year. While the butt fumble was entertaining, there’s no need for a round two (not that Geno will do much better).

31. Jacksonville Jaguars: Maurice Jones-Drew. Yup, that’s all they’ve got. Somebody should get Gabbert out of there and find the Jags a real quarterback. Shoot, they might as well sign Tebow and give him a shot just so people don’t forget about the organization.

32. Raiders: Terrelle Pryor was just named the team’s starter. His experience as an NFL quarterback is about the same as mine. It’s looking like Oakland will be in for yet another long season.

Western Conference Predictions

The dynamics of the NBA’s Western Conference seem to reshape themselves year by year. Unlike in the East, where Miami is the clear-cut favorite, the parody of today’s Western Conference is undeniable.
It’s that same parody that creates a sense of exhilaration for basketball fans come playoff time. Throughout the past two decades, the West has traditionally been a better conference from top to bottom, as evident by the 8 vs 1 seed upsets in 2007 (when the Baron Davis-led warriors defeated Dirk’s Mavs) and 2009 (when the Grizz topped Coach Pop’s always tough San Antonio squad).

With the current depth of talented teams out west, 2014 could very well be host to some more thrilling upsets. I guess that’s why TNT asserts that the NBA knows drama. If drama is to come in the form of another top seeded team being upended, then let this be a warning to KD and crew, because the Thunder will be seeded on top come playoff time.

Kevin Durant said he’s been sick and tired of coming in second his whole life. He was drafted second to Greg Oden, finished second in MVP voting to LBJ, and finished second in the 2012 finals. While I’m sure he would have been picked up first, not second, in any open gym I’ve ever played in, he certainly has higher standards than that. We all know KD can’t stand to sit back and watch LeBron James win a second championship, while he sits at home with zilch. It gets to him, as it should. As a result, Durant is hungrier than ever.

         

What will happen to the Thunder if they lose again? They are supposed to be built for championships. Might Durant and Westbrook be forced to separate if they fail to win again? These are questions neither OKC star wants to consider, which means their time must be now. They need to get W’s, and I have reason to believe they will be getting lots of them this season.

The Thunder are only two seasons removed from a trip to the NBA Finals, and thought they don’t have Harden anymore, I believe they would have been right back there last season had Russ not been the latest victim of a tragic yet ever-so-popular knee injury. With their point guard healthy, they earned the West’s top spot last year as the regular season concluded (despite no longer having Blackbeard, who moved on to Houston).  Their current roster looks nearly the same as last season’s. The biggest difference is that their opponents will now be facing a fed-up, impatient Durant, who’s getting sick of waiting for his first ring. The net result will be a #1 seed.

My second seed goes to the franchise that’s been completely flipped upside down from where it was a decade ago, the Los Angeles Clippers. I’ve never heard of trading for a coach, but LobCity made it happen, and they won’t regret it. Doc Rivers will prove just how much difference a head coach can make in this league. He has to be the second best coach (trailing only Popovich), and is now rejuvenated on the west coast after coaching an aging Celtics team that was nearing it’s window on the east coast. What enticed him to make the change is that he’s now got a roster to work with that is both youthful and skillful.

Chris Paul, the best leader and point guard in the league, has some new faces to work with. While the root of LobCity (Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin) returns, the team also added some much needed shooting to create room for those pick-and-rolls which so often lead to the above-the-rim action Clipper fans are growing accustomed to seeing. J.J. Redick will create room for CP3 to do his thing, and Dudley, a glue guy, will make shots and do all the little things to help his team improve on last year’s record-breaking season.

I think the pieces of the puzzle fit together nicely for L.A.C. to win a lot of games this upcoming season. To get the #2 seed in a tough Western Conference would be quite a feat for this new-look team, though I think they can accomplish that feat. I’m not sold, however, on their chances to go anywhere past the conference semifinals come playoff time.

While I think their roster was put together nicely for the stretch of an 82-game season, I don’t like the lack of defenders they have at the 2 and 3 positions, which I think will hurt them in a 7-game series against opposing teams’ superstars. Dudley and Redick will fit in great offensively with what the team is trying to accomplish, but can they really win a championship with those two guys owning starting spots? I don’t think so. Not to mention, Jamaal Crawford is the only guy other than CP3 who can create his own shot, and that is concerning for Clipper title hopes. I will admit, though, that Doc usually tends to find a way. I believe he’ll make it work through 82 games, but come post-season, I just think their weaknesses will be exposed on the bigger stage. Nevertheless, the Clippers get my #2 seed.

The Golden State Warriors, much like superstar Kevin Durant, have a chip on their shoulders. Such a mentality starts with the head coach, Mark Jackson, who is has already proved himself to be a confident, passionate new coach in this league. Though he failed to meet his promise to make the playoffs with the Warriors in year one, he put confidence back into a desperate franchise and delivered in year two, as the Warriors claimed the 6th seed in 2013.  Now that they’ve tasted success and improved their roster from what was an already talented club, they should only improve (hence me granting them my #3 seed).

Curry, the best shooter in the NBA, has made himself into more of an all-around player and a top-15 talent in this league. He and Klay Thompson together are deadly from beyond the arc. Harrison Barnes is also a threat on both ends of the court, and Bogut, Lee, Green, and Ezeli provide toughness as well as formidable depth down low. New addition Andre Iguodala will be a great fit for Golden State’s system as well. He and Barnes will each be able to guard the other team’s best player, which could make the Warriors extremely versatile on the defensive end of the floor (which is something they’ve lacked in the past). It’s not the individual pieces that make Golden State so dangerous, however, but the play of the unit as a collective group. The Warriors are a team full of good players who do not care who gets the credit. They play team ball, and they do so at a very high level.

          

Another team that knows nothing other than team basketball is the San Antonio Spurs, who will capture the #4 seed when the regular season comes to a close. The Spurs, though, have a style quite contrasting from that of the Warriors. Golden State is young, energetic, and in a sense, something new for basketball fans. The Spurs, on the other hand, have been there and done that. They’re the definition of consistency over time as they’ve done it for so long. They’re old. They’re fundamental. They’re blue collar. The Spurs do it without flash.

So why did I drop a team that was one free throw away from winning the World Championship to a 4 seed? Well, it’s not because I don’t believe in them. In fact, I do. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Spurs are back in the Finals next season, because they know what it takes. Their experience is second to none. The only difference I see in next season’s team as opposed to last season’s team is that they are one year older. This means achy knees, sore shoulders, and back spasms for vets like Ginobili and Duncan. Consequently, Coach Pop, who is known for resting his players during the regular season, will do so again more than ever during the course of this upcoming NBA season. I expect to see the big three on the bench more than in years past. As a result, I give them my #4 seed. Despite barely giving them home-court advantage in the first round, I give them a better chance to make the Finals than my 2-seeded Clippers. But hey, I’m just picking the seeds right now, not playoff results.

Come round 1 of playoff time the Spurs of old will be matched up with the Rockets of new. Despite the hype surrounding D12 teaming with Harden and a handful of shooters, Houston will finish no better than fifth out west. Sure, you get the positives as to why I think they will improve on their 8th seed from last season. They have both Dwight and Asik down low (that’s great for defensive purposes). Dwight will be playing with a roster similar to the one he had in Orlando that he took to the finals. Hakeem the Dream, Yao, and Kevin McHale will all be able to influence the big fella. And last but not least, Dwight doesn’t even have to be the best player on his team. All such things are positive for Houston. But one thing excited Houston fans can’t deny is that with the exception of Patrick Beverly, a backup, none of the guards on the team play defense. Trying to out-shoot and out-score people only works for so long. The team brought in Ronnie Brewer, but he’s an overrated defender who shouldn’t be on the court long because his defense is not good enough to make up for his lack of offensive production. So perhaps D12 can cure this problem by clogging the lane. But if it’s the same D12 of the past two years, that surely won’t work. He’ll be in foul trouble before Rocket fans can say “HELP.” The Rockets get my #5 seed because of offensive prowess, not defensive potency.

My #6 seed goes to the identity-less Lakers. We’ve seen how poor this team can play. Despite that poor play, and having probably the most injury-plagued basketball team in NBA history, the Lakeshow still made the playoffs last season. One cannot overlook what the Lakers did at the end of the regular season before Kobe went down with his achilles tear. In case you forgot, they were rolling. And they got better this off-season. The first step to improvement was addition by subtraction: ridding themselves of the Dwight Howard drama. Had Phil been the new coach of L.A.L. (as he should have been), then the team would be better off with Dwight and the triangle offense. But since he’s not, D12 has no place in D’Antoni’s system. I think with him out of the lineup, guys will not be worried about filling his soft ego with touches, but instead will be focused on their own games and playing their roles more effectively.

Call me a crazy Lakers fan, but I expect to see a lively Pau Gasol (who will be getting many more touches) this season and a much improved Steve Nash. And there is also no question in my mind that Kobe will be Kobe. He’s the most determined basketball player of all-time. If he wants to be back in elite form, he will be. So, the Black Mamba is not a concern of mine. Instead, I’m fascinated by what this Lakers team might or might not do. They’ve yet to show us what kind of team they are, but I believe these old guys can get it done. They did manage to insert some youth into their aching roster. Nick Young was by far Mitch Kupchak’s best pickup of the off-season. At age 28, Young has everything the Lakers needed: athleticism, a three point shot, the ability to create for self, and Laker pride (he’s an L.A. native). Ryan Kelly, Jordan Hill, Jody Meeks, Wesley Johnson, and Elias Harris will also be able to provide a youthful sense of energy and keep their elders (Pau, Kobe, Nash) updated with the newest technology of the modern era. With that being said, the Lakers could be on the bubble this year. And even if Pau and Nash don’t succeed like I think they will, the last time I checked, they still had Kobe Bryant. He’ll be back in rare form in no time.

While I’ve mentioned that certain teams clicked well as a unit, if one and one team only embodies the word togetherness, it has to be the Denver Nuggets. This team, which reminds me of the 2004 World Champion Detroit Pistons, is constructed as just that: a team. Denver has no superstar, but a great number of very good players. Their relentless style of play makes them tough to play on any given night because they never take games off, let alone plays off. Despite losing Iguodala to the Warriors, I didn’t drop them from a 3 seed to a 7 seed because I think they’ve gotten a lot worse. I think they will be as tough as ever; I just think other teams have gotten much better.

Denver will be capable of beating anyone and everyone. They’ll surprise a number of teams in a number of games. Nate Robinson, Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried, and J.J. Hickson just reek of energy (on both ends of the court). They’ll remain one of the most energetic, exciting teams to watch. Yet, I believe their one weakness will be offensive consistency. While playing in a conference that is much improved, their sometimes inconsistent efficiency on O will give them issues at times, especially under first-year head coach Brian Shaw. As a result, I see them finishing with the #7 seed and eventually entertaining the Clippers for 7 games in round one come playoff time.

            

My final seed goes to the Memphis Grizzlies. I love the way the Grizz play the game. They too, have no superstars. They have one of the best starting front lines with Marc Gasol and Zack Randolph, but neither guy is a superstar, and I’m concerned with their depth following Darrell Arthur’s departure. They’ll be good defensively, but still need to add another big for support. Mike Miller was the only addition to a team that badly needed one more scorer on offense (and didn’t get that scorer). Regardless of player personnel, the worst decision of the off-season came when a coaching change was made.

There was no logical reason for firing Lionel Hollins and replacing him with rookie head coach David Joerger (formerly of Moorhead State University). It makes no sense to me, nor did it to the Grizzlies players. The core foundation the team already has with Conley, Allen, Prince, and the big guys down low is enough to grant them a playoff birth. But starting over with a new head coach (one who still has to earn the respect of his players) was not a good move and might have ruined Memphis’s hopes of making a deep playoff run. The Grizz round out the Western Conference Playoffs with my #8 seed.

After 82 games of regular season play, your Western Conference seedings will look something like this:

1. Oklahoma City

2. Los Angeles Clippers

3. Golden State Warriors

4. San Antonio Spurs

5. Houston Rockets

6. Los Angeles Lakers

7. Denver Nuggets

8. Memphis Grizzlies